Leading Indicators of Banking Crises [electronic resource] : Was Asia Different?.
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TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 98/91Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1998Description: 1 online resource (32 p.)ISBN: 1451951744 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Banking Crises | Banking Sector | Banking System Distress | Banking System | Banking | Leading Indicators | East Asia | Indonesia | Korea, Republic of | Mexico | Philippines | ThailandAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Leading Indicators of Banking Crises : Was Asia Different?Online resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
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