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Iacoviello, Matteo.

Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead / Matteo Iacoviello. [electronic resource] : Matteo Iacoviello. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2001. - 1 online resource (23 p.) - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 01/109 . - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 01/109 .

This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries

ISBN: 1451853211 : 15.00 USD

ISSN: 1018-5941

Standard No.: 10.5089/9781451853216.001 doi

Subjects--Topical Terms:
Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
Business Fluctuations
Correlation
Equation
GDP Growth

Subjects--Geographic Terms:
Italy