000			02546cam a22004094a 4500
001			6993
003			The World Bank
006			m d
007			cr cn|||||||||
008			020129s2014 dcu i001 0 eng
024	8		_a10.1596/1813-9450-6993
035			_a(The World Bank)6993
100	1		_aRiera-Crichton, Daniel
245	1	0	_aFiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions _h[electronic resource] : _bDoes It Matter Whether Government Spending is Increasing or Decreasing? / _cRiera-Crichton, Daniel
260			_aWashington, D.C., _bThe World Bank, _c2014
300			_a1 online resource (35 p.)
520	3		_aUsing non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up.
650		4	_aCountercyclicality
650		4	_aCycle
650		4	_aDebt Markets
650		4	_aEconomic Stabilization
650		4	_aFinance and Financial Sector Development
650		4	_aFiscal Multiplier
650		4	_aFiscal Policy
650		4	_aMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
650		4	_aProcyclicality
650		4	_aPublic Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measure
650		4	_aPublic Sector Development
650		4	_aUrban Development
650		4	_aUrban Economics
700	1		_aRiera-Crichton, Daniel
700	1		_aVegh, Carlos A.
700	1		_aVuletin, Guillermo
776	1	8	_aPrint version: _iRiera-Crichton, Daniel _tFiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions. _dWashington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2014
830		0	_aPolicy research working papers.
830		0	_aWorld Bank e-Library.
856	4	0	_uhttp://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-6993
999			_c26922 _d26922