Today Versus tomorrow : The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income.

By: Thomas, Alun HContributor(s): Bayoumi, TamimMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Working PapersPublisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2009Copyright date: ©2009Description: 1 online resource (19 pages)Content type: text Media type: computer Carrier type: online resourceISBN: 9781452731896Subject(s): Balance of payments -- Econometric models | Consumption (Economics) -- Mathematical models | Petroleum industry and trade -- Econometric models | Revenue -- Econometric modelsGenre/Form: Electronic books.Additional physical formats: Print version:: Today Versus tomorrow : The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current IncomeDDC classification: 336.02 LOC classification: HD9560.5 -- .T466 2009ebOnline resources: Click to View
Contents:
Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Theoretical Considerations -- III. Data Analysis -- IV. Estimation -- A. Non-oil Current Account Balance -- B. Non-oil Fiscal Balance -- C. Public and Private Sectors -- V. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Determinants of Non- oil Current Account -- 2. Determinants of the Non-oil Fiscal Balance -- 3. Determinants of Non-oil Current Account -- Figures -- 1. Regional Non-Oil Current Accounts -- 2. Regional Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits -- References.
Summary: This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect.
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Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Theoretical Considerations -- III. Data Analysis -- IV. Estimation -- A. Non-oil Current Account Balance -- B. Non-oil Fiscal Balance -- C. Public and Private Sectors -- V. Conclusion -- Tables -- 1. Determinants of Non- oil Current Account -- 2. Determinants of the Non-oil Fiscal Balance -- 3. Determinants of Non-oil Current Account -- Figures -- 1. Regional Non-Oil Current Accounts -- 2. Regional Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits -- References.

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.

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