TY  - BOOK
AU  - Lebow,Richard Ned
AU  - Lebow,Richard Ned Ned
TI  - Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations
SN  - 9781400835126
AV  - JZ1234 -- .L43 2010eb 
U1  - 327.1072 
PY  - 2010///
CY  - Princeton
PB  - Princeton University Press
KW  - Cold War
KW  - Counterfactuals (Logic)
KW  - Imaginary histories
KW  - International relations -- Research
KW  - World politics -- Research
KW  - Electronic books
N1  - Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- PART ONE -- CHAPTER ONE: Making Sense of the World -- CHAPTER TWO: Counterfactual Thought Experiments -- PART TWO -- CHAPTER THREE: Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary -- CHAPTER FOUR: Leadership and the End of the Cold War: Did It Have to End This Way? -- PART THREE -- CHAPTER FIVE: Scholars and Causation 1 -- CHAPTER SIX: Scholars and Causation 2 -- Appendix: Experiment 4, Instrument 1: Unmaking American Tragedies -- CHAPTER SEVEN: If Mozart Had Died at Your Age: Psycho-logic versus Statistical Inference -- CHAPTER EIGHT: Heil to the Chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and Fascism -- Conclusions -- Notes -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y -- Z
N2  - Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work
UR  - https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/buse-ebooks/detail.action?docID=483562
ER  -