TY  - BOOK
AU  - Freund,Caroline
AU  - Freund,Caroline
TI  - The Trade Response To Global Downturns: Historical Evidence 
PY  - 2009///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - The World Bank
KW  - Base year
KW  - Currencies and Exchange Rates
KW  - Debt
KW  - Economic Theory and Research
KW  - Elasticity
KW  - Emerging Markets
KW  - Exports
KW  - Finance and Financial Sector Development
KW  - Financial crises
KW  - Financial crisis
KW  - Forecasts
KW  - Free Trade
KW  - GDP
KW  - Gross value
KW  - Growth rate
KW  - Income
KW  - International Economics & Trade
KW  - International trade
KW  - Inventories
KW  - Law and Development
KW  - Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
KW  - Middle income countries
KW  - Private Sector Development
KW  - Public Sector Development
KW  - Real GDP
KW  - Real income
KW  - Tax revenues
KW  - Trade balance
KW  - Trade Law
KW  - Trade Policy
KW  - Trough
KW  - Value added
N2  - The author examines the impact of historical global downturns on trade flows. The results provide insight into why trade has dropped so dramatically in the current crisis, what is likely to happen in the coming years, how global imbalances are affected, and which regions and industries suffer most heavily. The author finds that the elasticity of global trade volumes to real world GDP has increased gradually from around 2 in the 1960s to above 3 now. The author also finds that trade is more responsive to GDP during global downturns than in tranquil times. The results suggest that the overall drop in real trade this year is likely to exceed 15 percent. There is significant variation across industries, with food and beverages the least affected and crude materials and fuels the most affected. On the positive side, trade tends to rebound very rapidly when the outlook brightens. The author also finds evidence that global downturns often lead to persistent improvements in the ratio of the trade balance to GDP in borrower countries
UR  - http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-5015
ER  -