TY  - BOOK
AU  - Seo,John
AU  - Mahul,Olivier
AU  - Seo,John
TI  - The Impact of Climate Change On Catastrophe Risk Models: Implications for Catastrophe Risk Markets in Developing Countries 
PY  - 2009///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - The World Bank
KW  - Catastrophic events
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Conflict and Development
KW  - Debt Markets
KW  - Development network
KW  - Disaster
KW  - Disaster Management
KW  - Disaster reduction
KW  - Disaster risk
KW  - Disaster risk reduction
KW  - Earthquake
KW  - Earthquakes
KW  - Environment
KW  - Finance and Financial Sector Development
KW  - Hazard Risk Management
KW  - Hurricane
KW  - Hurricanes
KW  - Insurance and Risk Mitigation
KW  - Insurance Law
KW  - Insurers
KW  - Law and Justice
KW  - Natural Disasters
KW  - Natural hazards
KW  - Reconstruction
KW  - Reinsurers
KW  - Risk assessment
KW  - Storm
KW  - Storms
KW  - Terrorists
KW  - Urban Development
N2  - Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, in conjunction with recently published scientific literature has led risk modelers to revisit their hurricane models and develop climate conditioned hurricane models. This paper discusses these climate conditioned hurricane models and compares their risk estimates to those of base normal hurricane models. This comparison shows that the recent 50 year period of climate change has potentially increased North Atlantic hurricane frequency by 30 percent. However, such an increase in hurricane frequency would result in an increase in risk to human property that is equivalent to less than 10 years' worth of US coastal property growth. Increases in potential extreme losses require the reinsurance industry to secure additional risk capital for these peak risks, resulting in the short term in lower risk capacity for developing countries. However, reinsurers and investors in catastrophe securities may still have a long-term interest in providing catastrophe coverage in middle and low-income countries as this allows reinsurers and investors to better diversify their catastrophe risk portfolios
UR  - http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-4959
ER  -