TY - BOOK ED - International Monetary Fund. TI - Criteria of External Sustainability T2 - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper SN - 1451965206 : SN - 1018-5941 PY - 1988/// CY - Washington, D.C. PB - International Monetary Fund KW - Current Account Balance KW - imf KW - Current Account Imbalance KW - Current Account Imbalances KW - Current Account KW - Foreign Debt KW - Germany KW - Japan KW - United States N2 - This paper analyzes the main conceptual issues that arise in assessing external sustainability with a view toward developing operational criteria for the purposes of multilateral surveillance. The main contribution of the analysis is to show how conditional forecasts of external imbalance may be generated in a consistent way that explicitly incorporates a mechanism for achieving sustainability. An index of external unsustainability is also derived that reflects the probability of future changes in policies expected by private agents over time UR - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/15646-9781451965209/15646-9781451965209/15646-9781451965209.xml UR - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781451965209 ER -