TY  - BOOK
AU  - Ebeke,Christian
AU  - Siminitz,Jesse
TI  - Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area
T2  - IMF Working Papers
SN  - 1484388801 :
PY  - 2018///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - International Monetary Fund
KW  - Commercial Policy
KW  - imf
KW  - Criteria For Decision-Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
KW  - Euro Area
KW  - General
KW  - Investment
N2  - We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy's long-term growth potential
UR  - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/25649-9781484388808/25649-9781484388808/25649-9781484388808.xml
UR  - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781484388808
ER  -