TY  - BOOK
AU  - Ho,Giang
AU  - Mauro,Paolo
TI  - Growth: Now and Forever? 
T2  - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
SN  - 1498309828 :
SN  - 1018-5941
PY  - 2014///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - International Monetary Fund
KW  - Economic Growth Forecasts
KW  - imf
KW  - Economic Growth
KW  - Forecast Horizon
KW  - Growth Forecast
KW  - Growth Forecasts
KW  - Growth Rate
KW  - China, People's Republic of
KW  - India
KW  - Ireland
KW  - United Kingdom
N2  - Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon
UR  - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/21455-9781498309820/21455-9781498309820/21455-9781498309820.xml
UR  - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781498309820
ER  -