TY  - BOOK
AU  - Aiyar,Shekhar
AU  - Duval,Romain A.
AU  - Puy,Damien
AU  - Wu,Yiqun
AU  - Zhang,Longmei
TI  - Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
T2  - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
SN  - 1484330641 :
SN  - 1018-5941
PY  - 2013///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - International Monetary Fund
KW  - Bayesian Analysis
KW  - imf
KW  - Bayesian Model Averaging
KW  - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
KW  - Export Diversification
KW  - GDP per Capita
KW  - Growth
KW  - Algeria
KW  - China, People's Republic of
KW  - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
KW  - India
KW  - Mauritania
N2  - The "middle-income trap" is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results-including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries-are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies
UR  - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20362-9781484330647/20362-9781484330647/20362-9781484330647.xml
UR  - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781484330647
ER  -