TY  - BOOK
ED  - International Monetary Fund.
TI  - Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy
T2  - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
SN  - 1455205273 :
SN  - 1018-5941
PY  - 2010///
CY  - Washington, D.C.
PB  - International Monetary Fund
KW  - Bayesian Analysis
KW  - imf
KW  - Cyclically-Adjusted Balance
KW  - Fiscal Balance
KW  - Fiscal Impulse
KW  - Fiscal Stance
KW  - New Keynesian Phillips Curve
KW  - Armenia
N2  - This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia's fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past
UR  - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/11240-9781455205271/11240-9781455205271/11240-9781455205271.xml
UR  - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781455205271
ER  -