TY - BOOK AU - Jobert,Arnaud AU - Chan-Lau,Jorge A. AU - Jobert,Arnaud AU - Kong,Janet TI - An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets T2 - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper SN - 1451845219 : SN - 1018-5941 PY - 2004/// CY - Washington, D.C. PB - International Monetary Fund KW - Bank Distress KW - imf KW - Banking KW - Correlation KW - Distance-to-Default KW - Forecasting KW - Probability KW - Argentina KW - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China KW - Korea, Republic of KW - Thailand N2 - We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on Merton's (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it can predict a bank's credit deterioration up to nine months in advance. The distance-to-default, hence, may prove useful for bank monitoring purposes UR - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00289-9781451845211/00289-9781451845211/00289-9781451845211.xml UR - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781451845211 ER -