TY - BOOK AU - Roldos,Jorge AU - Hoffmaister,Alexander W. AU - Roldos,Jorge TI - The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea T2 - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper SN - 1451922124 : SN - 1018-5941 PY - 1996/// CY - Washington, D.C. PB - International Monetary Fund KW - Exchange Rate KW - imf KW - External Shocks KW - Intermediate Inputs KW - Open Economy KW - Real Exchange Rate KW - Brazil KW - Korea, Republic of N2 - This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate UR - http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/00009-9781451922127/00009-9781451922127/00009-9781451922127.xml UR - http://www.imfbookstore.org/IMFORG/9781451922127 ER -