Intro -- Part A Frameworks for using evidence -- 6 Scenario analysis for strategic thinking 116 -- Gary Saliba and Glenn Withers -- Part B Gathering and analysing evidence -- Past, present, and possible futures for evidence-based policy -- The historical context of evidence-based policy -- Defining evidence-based policy -- Critiques of the evidence-based policy agenda -- Promoting evidence-based policy -- Supply-side initiatives -- For research commissioners: -- For researchers: -- Demand-side initiatives -- Between supply and demand -- Improving evidence use by drawing on broader models of policy influence -- Possible futures for evidence-based policy -- Concluding remarks -- Frameworks for using evidence -- Characterising the program -- Identifying program outcomes -- Problems in implementing performance measures -- Assessing program need -- The nature of program evaluation -- Process and outcome evaluations -- Assessing program evaluability -- Conducting evaluations -- Evaluation methodology -- Program goals -- The role of stakeholders -- Theory-driven evaluation -- The political context of evaluation -- Conclusions -- A practical guide to cost-benefit analysis -- Cost-benefit analysis in practice -- Prime minister versus petrol heads -- 1. Identify and specify objectives and policy alternatives -- 2. Determine 'standing' -- 3. Identify and catalogue impacts of the project or policy, and its alternatives -- 4. Predict impacts of policy alternatives over the project life cycle -- 5. Estimate the economic value of the costs and benefits -- 6. Estimate the net present value of the costs and benefits -- 7. Allow for uncertainty -- 8. Conduct sensitivity analysis -- 9. Undertake distributional analysis to assist decision-makers -- 10. Make a recommendation -- The thorny issue of equity in cost-benefit analysis -- Multi-criteria analysis.

Definitions -- The historical development of multi-criteria analysis -- Including the public in public policy decision-making -- Structuring the decision-making process -- Steps in multi-criteria analysis -- Choosing the stakeholders -- Choosing the options and the objectives -- Selecting the criteria -- Weighting the criteria -- Evaluating the options -- Criteria -- Sensitivity analysis -- Interacting and iterating -- Advantages and disadvantages of multi-criteria analysis -- A variation on multi-criteria analysis: Deliberative multi-criteria evaluation -- Conclusions -- Economic modelling and forecasting -- Modelling requirements -- National effects -- Regional effects -- Industry effects -- Basic statistical models -- Univariate time series models -- Multivariate time series models -- Multivariate structural estimation models -- Market-specific models -- Macroeconomic models -- Multi-sector input-output models -- Computable general equilibrium models -- Strengths, weaknesses and applications of the models -- Using a combination of models -- Traditional approach -- Mixed approach -- Comprehensive integrated approach -- Conclusion -- Scenario analysis for strategic thinking -- What are scenarios? -- What are the advantages of scenarios? -- Affecting mental models -- New thinking and innovation -- Folding the future back into the present -- Contextual cues about future events -- Using scenario analysis -- Defining critical issues -- Understanding the dynamics of the contextual environment -- Transcending temporal and spatial boundaries -- Decisions for the whole organisation -- Scenarios and strategic planning -- Scenarios as 'windtunnels' to refine the strategic plan -- Scenarios as the basis of a new strategic plan -- Scenarios and day-to-day management -- Conclusion -- Gathering and analysing evidence -- Using consultants to gather evidence.

Some public service myths and prejudices -- Ninety-nine per cent preparation, one per cent perspiration -- Preparing a business case -- Saving time and costs with panels -- Uncertainty regarding scope of project -- Preparing tender documentation -- Thinking ahead -- What are the key risks? -- Fees and expenses -- Choosing the consultant -- Probity -- Executing the contract -- Managing consultants during the project -- Project Charter -- Contract variations -- Milestones -- Maintaining an issues log -- Sign-off -- Evaluation -- Data capture -- Warning signs of potential problems -- The role of 'small' consultants -- Reducing red tape -- Conclusion -- Sources and uses of secondary data -- Advantages of secondary data -- Sources of secondary data -- Official statistical agencies -- Using the Census -- Public archives -- Uses of secondary data -- Questions to ask when using secondary data -- Conclusion -- A user's guide to sample surveys -- Populations and samples -- Survey data collection methods -- Personal interviews -- Self-enumeration surveys -- Computer-assisted interviewing -- Questionnaire design -- Question types -- Choosing between question types -- Sequencing -- Language -- Questionnaire construction -- Sample design -- Sample size -- Sampling methodology -- Sources of error -- Sampling error -- Non-sampling error -- The problem of non-response -- Survey testing -- Types of testing -- Conducting survey tests -- Analysis of test results -- Collecting the data -- Self-enumeration surveys -- Interview surveys -- Quality assurance -- Conclusion -- Qualitative research methods -- Approaches to qualitative research -- Designing qualitative research -- Research questions -- Collecting qualitative data -- Primary and secondary data -- Interviews -- Focus groups -- Observational research -- Mixed methods research -- Documents in qualitative research.

Analysing qualitative data -- Qualitative data analysis methods -- Holistic methods -- Classification methods -- The use of computers in qualitative data analysis -- Evaluating qualitative research -- Generalisation in qualitative research -- Communicating qualitative research -- Implementation issues -- Conclusion -- Graphs -- Levels of measurement -- Graphs -- Interpreting graphs -- Frequency tables -- Choosing between graphs and tables -- Variable -- Measures of central tendency -- Measures of dispersion -- Inferential statistics -- What does it mean 'not to find a statistically significant difference'? -- What does it mean 'to find a statistically significant difference'? -- Tools for analysing quantitative data -- Conclusion -- Measures of association and correlation -- Regression analysis -- Multiple regression analysis -- Inferential statistics for measures of association -- Conclusion -- References.

The need to base policy on evidence has placed pressure on decision-makers to support proposals with well-grounded research and information. However, no practical guide with a focus on public sector policy and decision-making for doing this exists. This edited text fills the gap by providing a practical and comprehensive manual for people working in policy areas. It is aimed at practitioners with little or no experience in research and analysis but who require skills in managing, assessing and critically evaluating evidence use in the public sector.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.