Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Overview -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy -- Summary of the medium-term outlook -- Global growth surged to 3.9 percent in 2006 -- Regional outlooks -- Financial markets -- World trade -- Commodity markets -- Downside risks predominate -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 2 The Coming Globalization -- The evidence of globalization -- The world in 2030-the big picture -- The four channels of globalization -- What will happen if growth is slower-or faster-in the next 25 years? -- Challenges of the coming globalization -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 Income Distribution, Inequality, and Those Left Behind -- The global distribution of income -- Within-country inequality and poverty reduction -- Policy implications -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4 New Pressures in Labor Markets: Integrating Large Emerging Economies and the Global Sourcing of Services -- The impact of globalization: the story so far -- New challenge I-absorbing large emerging economies into the global market -- New challenge II-global sourcing of services -- Policies to confront the labor market challenges of globalization -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 Managing the Environmental Risks to Growth -- The immediate risk of epidemics -- The medium-term risks to marine fisheries -- The long-term risk of climate change -- Conclusions and policy recommendations -- Notes -- References -- Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects -- Figures -- 1.1 Industrial production may be slowing -- 1.2 Regional growth trends -- 1.3 Inflation has increased moderately -- 1.4 Inflation is rising in high-income countries -- 1.5 Signs of overheating in some developing countries -- 1.6 Despite turbulence, financing conditions remain favorable -- 1.7 Private capital flows to developing countries remain strong.

1.8 Ample liquidity keeps long-term interest rates low -- 1.9 Global demand shifts from the United States to Europe and developing countries -- 1.10 A start to orderly adjustment? -- 1.11 Interest rate spreads support the dollar -- 1.12 Turbulence resulted in sharp depreciations for some developing countries -- 1.13 Rotation in global trade -- 1.14 China's exports exceed those of the United States -- 1.15 Diverging trends in commodity prices -- 1.16 Oil prices continue to rise -- 1.17 Higher prices slow oil demand -- 1.18 A disappointing supply response -- 1.19 Spare production capacity remains low -- 1.20 After rising rapidly, housing price growth slows sharply -- 2.1 World trade has expanded dramatically . . . -- 2.2 . . . and become more diversified . . . -- 2.3 . . . than increase in migrants-in particular toward high-income countries . . . -- 2.4 . . . and a sharp rise in capital flows -- 2.5 Diffusion of traditional technologies has been slow, except in high-growth regions . . . -- 2.6 . . . but the uptake of new technologies has been faster -- 2.7 World population growth will be concentrated in developing countries in coming decades -- 2.8 Developing countries will account for a larger portion of world output in coming decades -- 2.9 In some developing regions, per capita incomes will begin to converge with those in high-income countries -- 2.10 Labor force growth is slowing -- 2.11 Due to the demographic dividend, fewer resources will be needed for a declining youth population -- 2.12 More resources will be needed to take care of a growing elderly population -- 2.13 Future-flow securitizations in developing countries, 1990-2004 -- 2.14a Past global growth . . . -- 2.14b . . . has been around 2 percent per capita for high-income regions . . . -- 2.14c . . . and much more volatile in developing countries.

2.15 More acceleration in growth is possible -- 2.16 Wages outpace profit income -- 3.1 Middle-class expansion is sensitive to growth assumptions -- 3.2 World tourism is expected to double between 2004 and 2020 -- 3.3 The world's poor may be concentrated in Africa -- 3.4 By 2030, East and South Asia are likely to move up the global income distribution ladder, while other regions will lag -- 3.5 Migration out of agriculture reduces poverty more when education is more equally distributed -- 3.6 Changes in inequality are mainly due to economic shifts -- 3.7 Inequality hampers the potential of growth to reduce poverty -- 3.8 Restricting intersectoral mobility can lead to large increases in inequality -- 3.9 Ending aid would hurt the poor -- 3.10 Global trade reform can be pro-poor -- 3.11 The inequality effects of trade liberalization are not large and depend on the structure of initial protection -- 4.1 Developed countries' imports of manufactures increasingly come from developing countries -- 4.2 In many developed countries the gap between high- and low-income earners has widened -- 4.3 Average wages in China have increased more than in other countries -- 4.4 China's imports from developing countries have surged over the last two decades -- 4.5 Developing-country exports of business services are growing rapidly -- 4.6 Low-income countries depend heavily on import duties for tax revenues -- 5.1 The SARS epidemic was contained in a matter of months -- 5.2 Total marine fish catch has leveled off -- 5.3 Temperatures have increased rapidly since the Industrial Revolution -- 5.4 Temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions have risen -- 5.5 Greenhouse gas emissions have long-term effects -- 5.6 Carbon emissions from developing countries are set to rise -- 5.7 Global trading in carbon emissions has mushroomed -- Tables -- 1.1 The global outlook in summary.

2.1 Services exports rise in line with goods exports -- 2.2 Country rankings-1980-2005 -- 2.3 Regional breakdown of poverty in developing countries -- 3.1 The global middle class is growing, its composition changing -- 3.2 Where the return to education is high, its poverty-reducing impact is also high -- 3.3 Some factors affect the probability of being in the lowest income decile more than others-and the differences are changing over time -- 4.1 Employment in developing countries has shifted out of agriculture into manufactures and services -- 4.2 In 2030 most workers will be in developing countries and unskilled -- 5.1 Progress in providing many global public goods is limited -- 5.2 Uncertainty and incentives affect international institutions -- A.1 East Asia and the Pacific forecast summary -- A.2 East Asia and the Pacific country forecasts -- A.3 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary -- A.4 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts -- A.5 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary -- A.6 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts -- A.7 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary -- A.8 Middle East and North Africa country forecasts -- A.9 South Asia forecast summary -- A.10 South Asia country forecasts -- A.11 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary -- A.12 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts -- Boxes -- 2.1 Inside the box-the components of scenario building -- 2.2 Challenge of geopolitical shifts for long-term economic forecasts: lessons of history -- 3.1 Changes in demographic structure, occupational choices, and factor rewards determine the authors' hypothetical 2030 world income distribution -- 3.2 Aggregate economic performance: distribution matters -- 4.1 What causes the gap between skilled and unskilled labor-technology or trade? -- 4.2 Workers in the nontraded sector-the role of migration.

4.3 Is the world flat . . . or just smaller? -- 4.4 Global production and the iPod -- 4.5 Does globalization lead to a race to the bottom on labor standards? -- 4.6 The number of services jobs liable to be moved abroad: large or small? -- 4.7 Trading goods and services or trading tasks? -- 4.8 Key challenges for education systems in the new global economy -- 4.9 Overview of the impact of active labor-market programs -- 5.1 The vanishing polar ice -- 5.2 Can efficiency and renewables be the answer? -- 5.3 Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change.

Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons". Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.