Contents -- Preface -- Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Prefácio -- Sumário Executivo -- Executive Summary -- Introduction -- 1. Country Background: Socio-Economic Realities Before and After Independence -- Socio-Geographic Characteristics -- Living Standards Indicators -- The Transition to Independence -- Policy Choices and Structural Changes -- 2. Macroeconomic Performance in a Time of Transitions -- The Transition to a Market Economy -- More Revenues and Less Inflation -- The Tensions of Transition -- 3. Oil Wealth: Policy Options to Manage the Windfall -- The Characteristics of the Petroleum Sector -- The Legal Framework Governing the Sector -- Governance, Transparency and Institutional Capacity -- Oil Wealth: How Much and for How Long? -- Intergenerational Considerations -- Policy Options To Manage the Windfall -- 4. The Diamond Sector: A Potential Underexploited -- The Characteristics of the Diamond Sector -- Governance: Opaque and Unstable Legislation -- The Business Environment: Not Competitive Enough -- A Three-Pronged Strategy to Unleash the Potential of The Sector -- 5. Private Sector Development and the Business Environment -- The Private Sector in Angola -- Trade Patterns and Regional Integration -- Recent Actions to Improve the Business Environment -- The Way Forward -- 6. Removing Obstacles to Agriculture and Rural Development -- A Sector Facing Daunting Challenges -- Removing Obstacles to Output Growth -- Stimulating Competitiveness through Better Incentives -- Annex I -- Annex II -- 7. Supporting Livelihoods and Improving Service Delivery -- Supporting Livelihood Strategies -- Strengthening Existing Social Programs -- Reaching the Poor with Social Services -- Using Fiscal Savings to Improve Service Delivery -- Statistical Appendix -- References -- Map of Angola -- Endpiece -- LIST OF TABLES.

E.1 A Scorecard to Assess Governance and Transparency in the Oil Sector -- E.2 Summary of Diagnostics and Recommendations -- 1.1 Basic Poverty and Social Indicators -- 1.2 Composition of GDP by Sector, 1966-2004 -- 2.1 Macroeconomic Stabilization Programs Adopted between 1989 and 2000 -- 2.2 Macroeconomic Framework, 2003-07 -- 2.3 International Experiences on Macroeconomic Stabilization Programs -- 3.1 Unit Cost Comparisons for Selected Countries -- 3.2 Fiscal Terms for Petroleum Exploration Contracts in Angola -- 3.3 Sonangol Tax and Profit Oil Liabilities to the Government of Angola -- 3.4 A Scorecard to Assess Governance and Transparency in the Oil Sector -- 3.5 Angola's Petroleum Wealth under Different Price Scenarios -- 3.6 Gross Revenue Scenarios -- 3.7 Total Governance Revenues -- 3.8 Permanent Expenditure Per Capita at Different Assumptions -- 4.1 Fiscal Regimes for Diamond Mining -- 5.1 Government Policies and Behaviors and Investment Decisions -- 5.2 SADC Infrastructure Indicators -- 5.3 Trends in Merchandize Trade -- 5.4 Destination of Angolan Exports (percent) -- 5.5 Sources of Imports (percent) -- 6.1 Production of Selected Farm Products (1961-2003) -- 6.2 Comparative Yields for Key Crops, 2003 -- 7.1 Public Services According to their Perceived Importance (1 = Maximal -- 7 = Minimal -- %) -- 7.2 Satisfaction Rates with Public Services (1 = Maximal -- 7 = Minimal -- %) -- LIST OF FIGURES -- E.1 Association between Resource Concentration and Conflicts -- E.2 Curbing Inflation (Angola: Year on Year Inflation Rate) -- E.3 Government Revenues from Oil under Different Price Scenarios and in the Absence of New Discoveries -- 1.1 Gini Coefficients-Angola and Oil Producing Countries -- 1.2 Evolution of Angola's Real GDP Per Capita, 1960-2004 -- 1.3 Composition of Domestic Expenditure, 1960-2004.

1.4 Total Government Expenditure as a Percent of GDP for Selected Countries -- 2.1 A Snapshot of Inflation and Dollarization -- 2.2 Progress in Macroeconomic Indicators -- 2.3 Curbing Inflation -- 2.4 Foreign Exchange Interventions -- 2.5 Tradable and Nontradable In .ation Rates -- 2.6 Angola-Gross International Reserves -- 2.7 Association between Resource Concentration and Conflict -- 3.1 Oil Reserves: Selected Countries -- 3.2 Angola Oil Production -- 3.3 Total Costs for Selected Project -- 3.4 Comparison of Government Take in Selected Countries -- 3.5 Brent North Sea Oil Price Scenario -- 3.6 Gross Revenue Scenarios -- 3.7 Government Revenue Scenarios -- 3.8 Sonangol Revenues -- 3.9 Sonangol Expenditures -- 3.10 Permanent Expenditure Per Capita -- 4.1 Angola's Official Diamond Exports -- 4.2 Diamond Tax Revenues (1995-2004) -- 5.1 Importance of Informal Employment in the Urban Economy -- 5.2 Breakdown of Applied MFN Duties, 2005 -- 5.3 Governance and Transparency -- 6.1 Estimated Historical Production of Major Crops, (1961-2003) -- 7.1 Annual Expenditures Per Capita in Education by Provinces -- 7.2 Annual Per Capita Expenditure in Health -- LIST OF BOXES -- E.1 Elements of a Revenue Management Framework for Angola -- 3.1 Petroleum Sector Data -- 3.2 Legal and Contractual Framework -- 3.3 The Petroleum Tax Cycle in Angola -- 3.4 The Paradox and Plenty and the Case of Angola -- 3.5 The Quality of Angolan Crude Oil -- 3.6 Elements of a Revenue Management Framework for Angola -- 4.1 Certificates of Origin and the Kimberley Process -- 4.2 The International Experience on Regulating Diamond Production -- 4.3 Corporate Social Responsibility in the Diamond Sector -- 4.4 Time Frame and Actions for Diamond Sector Reform and Development -- 5.1 A Scorecard for Tackling Governance and Corruption -- 6.1 Decentralization Matters: The Mozambican "Proagri".

6.2 Shrinking State Intervention and Soaring Productivity-The Case of Brazil -- 7.1 Existing National Programs Addressing PRS Objectives.

Once one of the world's largest staple food producers, Angola is now known as a major oil exporter - the second largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa. Angola is also the world's fourth largest producer of rough diamonds in terms of value, with the potential to become one of the leading global diamond producers. In addition to oil and diamonds, the country is well endowed with agricultural resources which remain mostly untapped. However, despite the country's significant natural wealth, a prolonged civil war, the rapid development of the oil sector, and the policies pursued after Independence in 1975 have left the Angolan economy in a unique situation, characterized by very uneven indicators of development. The Angolan economy is now experiencing massive oil windfall gains that are expected to last throughout the next decade. Since oil rents are to a large part concentrated in the public sector, the question of how the oil revenue should be spent and distributed across present and future generations becomes key to any economic development strategy. This study identifies six core areas where a strategic approach for the development of a broad-based growth strategy is required: (i) the incomplete transition to a market economy; (ii) macroeconomic management; (iii) governance and transparency in the management of the mineral wealth; (iv) the business environment; (v) agriculture; and (vi) public service delivery to the poor.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.