Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Introduction -- Red to Gray: A Unique Demographic Transition -- Red Light to Green Light: Growing Older Does Not Have to Mean Growing Slower -- Red Ink to Black Ink: Waging Sensible Policies Can Ease Aging's Spending Impact -- Completing and Building on the Transitions: The Different Paths Ahead -- Notes -- 1. The Demographic Transition in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union -- Introduction -- The Global Demographic Transition -- The Demographic Transition in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- Demographic Projections to 2025 -- Population Change and Dependency Rates -- Two Distinct Demographic Profiles: Old Countries and Young Countries -- Conclusion -- Notes -- 2. Demographic Change and Labor Markets -- Introduction -- Labor Force Projections -- Implications of an Aging Labor Force for Labor Market Outcomes -- Aging and Labor Productivity -- Policy Implications -- Annex 2.A: ILO Labor Force Projection Methodologies -- Annex 2.B: Labor Force Participation Projections, 2005-20 -- Annex 2.C: Changes in Working-Age Population -- Annex 2.D: Participation Rates in Countries of the Region -- Notes -- 3. Aging, Savings, and Financial Markets -- Introduction -- Aging and Saving Behavior -- Aging and Financial Markets -- Policy Implications -- Annex 3.A: Gross Domestic Savings in Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries -- Annex 3.B: Selected Financial Sector Indicators -- Notes -- 4. Aging and Pension Expenditures -- Introduction -- Current Pension Systems in Countries of the Region -- Projected Impact of Aging on Pension Spending -- Prospects for Further Parametric Reform -- Reform Options -- Notes -- 5. Aging, Long-Term Care, and Public Expenditures -- Introduction -- Aging and Health Expenditures -- Projections of Public Expenditures on Health.

Long-Term Care -- Policy Implications -- Annex 5.A: Legislation on Long-Term Care in Europe -- Annex 5.B: Gross Domestic Product and Public Expenditures on Health -- Annex 5.C: Elderly Dependent Population -- Annex 5.D: Sensitivity of Projection Results to Data Assumptions -- Notes -- 6. Aging and Education -- Introduction -- How Education Systems Have Changed Since Transition -- Impact of Projected Demographic Changes on Enrollments -- Improved Productivity through Better Education Systems -- Policy Implications -- Annex 6.A: Aging and Education: Data Tables -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- O.1 Demographic Projections -- O.2 Pronatalist Policies in Europe -- 1.1 Key Definitions in Demography -- 1.2 Fertility Declines and Improvement in Longevity in Selected Countries, 1950-2000 -- 1.3 Demographic Projections -- 2.1 How Does Productivity Change with Age for Different Tasks? -- 2.2 What Do Wage Trends Tell Us about How Productivity Changes with Age? -- 2.3 Computing Returns to Education -- 3.1 Definitions of Saving Terms -- 3.2 When Can Aging Lead to Greater Savings? -- 3.3 What Role Does Cross-Border Capital Mobility Have in Financial Markets? -- 3.4 Key Pension Fund Concepts -- 3.5 Aging and Asset Meltdown -- 4.1 Glossary of Pension Terms -- 6.1 How Are Education Systems Implicated in the Process of Demographic Change? -- 6.2 Reforms Needed in Education Systems -- 6.3 Fundamental Problems with Current Financing Formulas -- Figures -- O.1 The Region's Different Mixes of Demographic and Economic Transition -- O.2 Most Countries in the Region Will Have Significant Population Decreases Between 2000 and 2025 -- O.3 The Proportion of Population Aged 65+ Will be Much Higher by 2025 -- O.4 Countries Face Different Mixes of Demographic and Economic Transition.

O.5 In the Region, Labor productivity Has Had a Stronger Impact on Growth Than Aging (1998-2005) -- O.6 Financial Markets in Even the More Developed Economies of the Region are Shallower Than Those in Other OECD Countries -- O.7 Pension Spending Would Rise Significantly Because of the Aging Effect, But Can Be Moderated by Reforms . . . -- O.8 . . .Indeed, in Some Countries, Pension Reforms Already Undertaken Will Moderate the Impact of Aging -- O.9 Retirement Ages Are Lower in the Region Than in Higher-Income Countries -- O.10 Modest Social Pensions Would Generally be Affordable -- O.11 Public Health Care Costs Are Likely to Rise Only Slightly in Most Aging Countries in the Region by 2020 -- O.12 School-Age Populations Will Shrink in All Countries Except Tajikistan . . . -- O.13 . . . But Improved Coverage Will Lead to Fast Growth in Secondary and Higher Enrollments in Many Countries -- 1.1 Global Total Fertility Rates, 1950-2050 -- 1.2 Global Life Expectancy, 1950-2050 -- 1.3 Total Fertility Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.4 Male Life Expectancy at Birth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.5 Female Life Expectancy at Birth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.6 Absolute and Relative Change in Population Size in Selected European and Former Soviet Countries, 1950-2000 -- 1.7 Proportion of Population 65 Years and Older in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.8 Median Age in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 1950-2000 -- 1.9 Projected Fertility Rates in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 2000-25 -- 1.10 Projected Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth for Males in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25.

1.11 Projected Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth for Females in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.12 Population Growth Rates in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 2000-25 -- 1.13 Projected Change in Population Size in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.14 Projected Change in the Population Share 65 Years and Older in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.15 Projected Change in the Population Share 0-14 Years in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.16 Projected Change in the Population Share 15-64 Years in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.17 Projected Increases in Median Ages in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.18 Child Dependency Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.19 Elderly Dependency Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.20 Total Dependency Rates in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2000-25 -- 1.21 Proportion of the Projected Population 65 Years and Older in 2025 and Percentage of Change in Population Size between 2000 and 2025 in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union -- 1.22 Population Age Structure of Bulgaria, 2000 and 2025 -- 1.23 Population Age Structure of Tajikistan, 2000 and 2025 -- 2.1 Relative and Absolute Changes in Working-Age Population, 15-64 Years, Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 2005-25 -- 2.2 Immigration and Emigration Flows for Eastern European and Former Soviet Subregions, Western Europe, North America, and Israel, 2000-03 -- 2.3 Change in Male and Female Labor Force Participation Rates for Older-Age Categories, Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, 1980-2003.

2.4 Participation Rates of Labor Force 50 to 64 Years by Educational Attainment in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.5 Marginal Effect of Age on Labor Force Participation of Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.6 Marginal Effect of Age on Labor Force Participation of Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.7 Marginal Effect of Age on Unemployment of Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.8 Marginal Effect of Age on Unemployment of Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.9 Informal Share of Wage Employment in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.10 Marginal Effect of Age on Weekly Hours of Employment for Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.11 Marginal Effect of Age on Weekly Hours of Employment for Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.12 Marginal Effect of Age on Wages for Females in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.13 Marginal Effect of Age on Wages for Males in Selected Eastern European and Former Soviet Countries, Various Years -- 2.14 Returns to Years of Education for Older and Younger Cohorts in Selected Countries -- 2.A.1 ILO Estimates and Projections of the Economically Active Population, 1980-2020 -- 2.B.1 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Kyrgyz Republic, 2005-20 -- 2.B.2 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Turkey, 2005-20 -- 2.B.3 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Bulgaria, 2005-20.

2.B.4 Labor Force Participation Projections under Different Scenarios, Czech Republic, 2005-20.

Conventional wisdom holds that aging populations are unfavorable for economic growth because of their potential impacts on labor supply, productivity, and savings. When this is coupled with the increased spending pressures because of pension requirements and health care, aging societies are likely to face serious fiscal problems. This report addresses these concerns in the unique context of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union where many countries are aging rapidly without the economic resources and institutional capacity of other aging societies in Western Europe and Japan.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.