Cover Page -- Title Page -- Dedication -- Copyright Page -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Introduction -- I: RIVALRY -- 1: Irreducible Uncertainty and the Need for Judgment -- Determinism in the Objective World -- Indeterminism in the Objective World -- Human Judgment and Uncertainty -- Different Consequences of Different Errors -- Duality of Error in Law and Medicine -- 2: Duality of Error and Policy Formation -- Misconceiving Probabilities and Its Consequences -- The Slow Formal Recognition of the Duality of Error -- Are Cycles of Differential Injustice to Individuals and Society Inevitable? -- 3: Coping with Uncertainty: The Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis -- Intuition and Analysis in the History of Thought -- Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis in the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making -- Which View Is Correct? -- Implications for Policy Formation -- II: TENSION -- 4: Tension Between Coherence and Correspondence Theories of Competence -- Engineering -- Medicine -- Economics -- Science -- Coherence and Correspondence Theories Introduced into Judgment and Decision Making -- A Framework for Evaluation of the Competence of Human Judgment -- Current Conclusions About the Competence of Human Judgment -- 5: The Evolutionary Roots of Correspondence Competence -- Mating Judgments -- Navigation -- Combat -- Use of Multiple Fallible Indicators by Apes -- Use of Multiple Fallible Indicators by Early Homo Sapiens -- The Construction of Multiple Fallible Indicators for Policymaking -- III: COMPROMISE AND RECONCILIATION -- 6: Reducing Rivalry Through Compromise -- Premise 1: A Cognitive Continuum -- Premise 2: Common Sense -- 7: Task Structure and Cognitive Structure -- Premise 3: Theory of Task Structures -- Premise 4: Dynamic Cognition -- Premise 5: Pattern Recognition and Functional Relations -- Summary.

8: Reducing Tension Through Complementarity -- Critiques of Negative Views of Coherence Competence -- Resolving the Tension Between Coherence and Correspondence Through Complementarity -- Correspondence and Coherence in Popper's "Three Worlds" -- Part III Summary -- IV: POSSIBILITIES -- 9: Is It Possible to Learn by Intervening? -- An Example -- The Modes of Inquiry Matrix as a Predictor -- "Trapped" Administrators -- Desperate A dministrators -- Experimenting Administrators -- Mode 1: Methods of Physical Science -- Mode 2: Randomized, Experimental-Control Group Experiments -- Mode 3: Quasi-experimentation -- Summary -- 10: Is It Possible to Learn from Representing? -- Mode 4A: Hypothetical Intervention and Manipulation of Variables and Conditions: The Coherence Approach -- Mode 4B: The Correspondence Approach -- Mode 4C: The Cognitive Activity of Policymakers -- Mode 5: Expert Judgment -- Mode 6: Unrestricted Judgment -- Summary -- 11: Possibilities for Wisdom -- Hadley Cantril and Friends: Franklin Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower -- The "Romantic" Period -- Janis's Attempts to Link Psychology and Policy Making -- My Turn at the White House -- Suedfeld and Tetlock: Broadening the Perspective -- The Reappearance of Common Sense: Philip Howard and His Friends-President Clinton, Senator Dole, and Company -- The Conventional Road to Wisdom: Dependence on the Elders -- 12: The Possible Future of Cognitive Competence -- Past -- Present -- Future -- 13: Rivalry, Tension-Forever? -- The Persistence of Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis at the Supreme Court -- The Persistence of Tension Between Correspondence and Coherence in Sentencing -- Conclusion -- Some Conjectures About Competence -- Epilogue -- Notes -- References -- Index -- Subject Index.

This work focuses on how social policy grows out of the policymaker's judgment about what to do, what can be done, and what ought to be? Answers necessarily emerge from human judgment, and from human error and the unavoidable uncertainty in the world.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.