Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011 [electronic resource] : Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall.

By: World BankContributor(s): World BankMaterial type: TextTextSeries: Economic Updates and Modeling | World Bank e-LibraryPublication details: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2011Subject(s): Accounting | Agriculture | Airports | Asset Management | Business Environment | Capital Expenditures | Capital Flows | Capital Markets | Civil Service | Commodity Prices | Competitiveness and Competition Policy | Credit Default Swaps | Debt | Decision Making | Developed Countries | Developing Countries | Economic Forecasting | Economic Growth | Financial Services | Fiscal & Monetary Policy | Fiscal Policy | Fuel Taxes | Gdp | Global Economy | Gross Domestic Product | Inflation | Interest Rates | Investment Climate | Labor Costs | Labor Market | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | Market Economy | Monetary Policy | Operating Costs | Private Sector Development | Privatization | Property Rights | Public Investment | Public Safety | Public Sector Development | Public Spending | Railways | Retirement | Risk Aversion | Roads | Tax Administration | Toll Roads | Transparency | Transport | Unemployment | Vehicles | WagesOnline resources: Click here to access online Abstract: Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.
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Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.

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