Assessing External Sustainability in India [electronic resource] / Tim Callen.
Material type: TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 99/181Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1999Description: 1 online resource (30 p.)ISBN: 1451859171 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Balance of Payments | Capital Controls | Current Account Deficit | Current Account | External Borrowing | External Liabilities | IndiaAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Assessing External Sustainability in IndiaOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyzes the optimality of its capital flows. We use three approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls; a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises; and scenarios that examine the path of the current account consistent with the stabilization of India's external liability-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyzes the optimality of its capital flows. We use three approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls; a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises; and scenarios that examine the path of the current account consistent with the stabilization of India's external liability-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.
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