Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff [electronic resource] : Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries / Papa M'B.P. N'Diaye.
Material type: TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 02/220Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2002Description: 1 online resource (39 p.)ISBN: 1451875215 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Inflation Process | Inflation Targeting | Long-Term Interest Rates | Lucas Critique | Model Construction and Estimation | Phillips Curve | United KingdomAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff : Some Evidence From 17 Industrial CountriesOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some evidence in favor of the Lucas critique by showing that the short-run unemployment-inflation trade-off tends to improve in countries that are successful in providing low and stable inflation.Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some evidence in favor of the Lucas critique by showing that the short-run unemployment-inflation trade-off tends to improve in countries that are successful in providing low and stable inflation.
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