The Volatility Trap [electronic resource] : Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk / Reda Cherif.
Material type: TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 12/134Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012Description: 1 online resource (21 p.)ISBN: 1475503865 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Buffer-Stock | Correlation | Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General | Growth | Investment Rate | Nonlinear Relationship | Bahrain | Bulgaria | Cameroon | Dominican Republic | RomaniaAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: The Volatility Trap : Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate RiskOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical evidence shows a nonlinear relationship between investment and saving and that investment is a hump-shaped function of the volatility of permanent shocks, as predicted by the model.We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical evidence shows a nonlinear relationship between investment and saving and that investment is a hump-shaped function of the volatility of permanent shocks, as predicted by the model.
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