The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia [electronic resource] : Debt Sustainability Analysis.

By: International Monetary FundMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Staff Country Reports, Country Report ; No. 05/27Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005Description: 1 online resource (17 p.)ISBN: 1451812736 :ISSN: 1934-7685Subject(s): Debt Sustainability Analysis | External Debt | GDP Growth | Public Debt | Real GDP | EthiopiaAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia : Debt Sustainability AnalysisOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia's external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia's historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.
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This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia's external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia's historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.

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