Growth [electronic resource] : Now and Forever? / Giang Ho.
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TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 14/117Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014Description: 1 online resource (27 p.)ISBN: 1498309828 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Economic Growth Forecasts | Economic Growth | Forecast Horizon | Growth Forecast | Growth Forecasts | Growth Rate | China, People's Republic of | India | Ireland | United KingdomAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Growth : Now and Forever?Online resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
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