Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions [electronic resource] : The Case of Ireland / Daniel Kanda.

By: Kanda, DanielMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 10/57Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010Description: 1 online resource (23 p.)ISBN: 1451963688 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Asset Price Cycle | Econometric and Statistical Methods: General | Estimation | Expenditure | Fiscal Balance | Model Construction and Estimation | IrelandAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions : The Case of IrelandOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take account of asset prices and sectoral changes, and applies this to the case of Ireland, where a property bust has revealed a large hole in the public finances. It is shown that excluding these factors led to a substantial bias in the estimation of structural revenues, and the structural balance prior to the crisis was much larger than earlier estimated.
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Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take account of asset prices and sectoral changes, and applies this to the case of Ireland, where a property bust has revealed a large hole in the public finances. It is shown that excluding these factors led to a substantial bias in the estimation of structural revenues, and the structural balance prior to the crisis was much larger than earlier estimated.

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