Thailand [electronic resource] : Selected Issues.
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TextSeries: IMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ; No. 08/194Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008Description: 1 online resource (43 p.)ISBN: 1451836856 :ISSN: 1934-7685Subject(s): Exchange Rate | Interest Rate | Interest Rates | Monetary Policy | Output Gap | ThailandAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Thailand : Selected IssuesOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff baseline projections over the medium term. We analyze two main risk scenarios, and estimate that the output in Thailand may decline by up to 0.9 percent relative to the baseline. However, the adverse impact on Thai output is likely to be smaller than suggested above.
To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff baseline projections over the medium term. We analyze two main risk scenarios, and estimate that the output in Thailand may decline by up to 0.9 percent relative to the baseline. However, the adverse impact on Thai output is likely to be smaller than suggested above.
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