Budget Deficits and Interest Rates [electronic resource] : A Fresh Perspective / Ari Aisen.

By: Aisen, AriContributor(s): Hauner, DavidMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 08/42Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008Description: 1 online resource (19 p.)ISBN: 1451869045 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Budget Deficit | Inflation | Money Supply | System GMM | Bulgaria | Colombia | India | Philippines | RomaniaAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Budget Deficits and Interest Rates : A Fresh PerspectiveOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: We extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways: we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel; explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature; and apply system GMM. There is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates, but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of several conditions: deficits are high, mostly domestically financed, or interact with high domestic debt; financial openness is low; interest rates are liberalized; or financial depth is low.
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We extend the literature on budget deficits and interest rates in three ways: we examine both advanced and emerging economies and for the first time a large emerging market panel; explore interactions to explain some of the heterogeneity in the literature; and apply system GMM. There is overall a highly significant positive effect of budget deficits on interest rates, but the effect depends on interaction terms and is only significant under one of several conditions: deficits are high, mostly domestically financed, or interact with high domestic debt; financial openness is low; interest rates are liberalized; or financial depth is low.

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