Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles [electronic resource] / Allan Timmermann.

By: Timmermann, AllanContributor(s): Aiolfi, Marco | Catão, Luis | Timmermann, AllanMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 06/49Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006Description: 1 online resource (64 p.)ISBN: 1451863098 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Business Cycle | Equation | Factor Models | Real GDP | Statistics | Argentina | Brazil | Chile | MexicoAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Common Factors in Latin America's Business CyclesOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
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This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.

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