Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles [electronic resource] / Allan Timmermann.
Material type: TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 06/49Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006Description: 1 online resource (64 p.)ISBN: 1451863098 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Business Cycle | Equation | Factor Models | Real GDP | Statistics | Argentina | Brazil | Chile | MexicoAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Common Factors in Latin America's Business CyclesOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
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