Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets [electronic resource] / James Y Yao.

By: Yao, James YContributor(s): Chan-Lau, Jorge A | Mathieson, Donald J | Yao, James YMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 02/98Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2002Description: 1 online resource (25 p.)ISBN: 1451852150 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Contagion | Econometric and Statistical Methods: General | Extreme Value Theory | Financial Markets | General Financial Markets: General (Includes Measurement and Data) | International Finance: Genera | Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China | Japan | United StatesAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Extreme Contagion in Equity MarketsOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This study uses bivariate extremal dependence measures, based on the number of equity return co-exceedances in two markets, to quantify both negative and positive equity returns contagion in mature and emerging equity markets during the past decade. The results indicate (a) higher contagion for negative returns than for positive returns; (b) a secular increase in contagion in Latin America not matched in other regions; (c) global increases in contagion following the 1998 financial crises; and (d) that the use of simple correlations as a proxy for contagion could be misleading, as the former exhibit low correlation with extremal dependence measures of contagion.
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This study uses bivariate extremal dependence measures, based on the number of equity return co-exceedances in two markets, to quantify both negative and positive equity returns contagion in mature and emerging equity markets during the past decade. The results indicate (a) higher contagion for negative returns than for positive returns; (b) a secular increase in contagion in Latin America not matched in other regions; (c) global increases in contagion following the 1998 financial crises; and (d) that the use of simple correlations as a proxy for contagion could be misleading, as the former exhibit low correlation with extremal dependence measures of contagion.

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