Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa [electronic resource] : Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived? / Paul Cashin.
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TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 00/72Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2000Description: 1 online resource (51 p.)ISBN: 1451849338 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Confidence Interval | Shock Persistence | Terms of Trade Shocks | Time Series | Trade Shocks | Botswana | Central African Republic | Congo, Democratic Republic of the | Equatorial Guinea | GuineaAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa : Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?Online resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely-for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely-for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.
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