IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3 [electronic resource]
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TextSeries: IMF Staff PapersPublication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1999Description: 1 online resource (104 p.)ISBN: 1451973683 :ISSN: 1020-7635Subject(s): Banking Crises | Capital Inflows | Exchange Rate | International Monetary Fund | Real Interest Rates | Indonesia | Korea, Republic of | Mexico | Thailand | United StatesAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3Online resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
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