Currency and Banking Crises [electronic resource] : The Early Warnings of Distress / Graciela Laura Kaminsky.
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TextSeries: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 99/178Publication details: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1999Description: 1 online resource (38 p.)ISBN: 1451858930 :ISSN: 1018-5941Subject(s): Banking Crises | Banking Crisis | Banking | Currency Crises | Early Warnings | Financial Crises | Indonesia | Malaysia | Philippines | ThailandAdditional physical formats: Print Version:: Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of DistressOnline resources: IMF e-Library | IMF Book Store Abstract: The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
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