What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? [electronic resource] / Brenton, Paul
Material type: TextPublication details: Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2009Description: 1 online resource (38 p.)Subject(s): Adverse impacts | Bilateral trade | Currencies and Exchange Rates | Debt Markets | Econometric analysis | Economic size | Economic Theory and Research | Emerging Markets | Export growth | Exports | Finance and Financial Sector Development | Fixed costs | Free Trade | Income | Income groups | Income levels | Inequality | International Economics and Trade | International trade | Law and Justice | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | Markets and Market Access | Overvaluation | Poverty Reduction | Private Sector Development | Product differentiation | Production costs | Purchasing power | Tax Law | Technical assistance | Trade Law | Trade Policy | Trade policy | Transition economies | Unemployment | WealthAdditional physical formats: Brenton, Paul.: What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?Online resources: Click here to access online Abstract: Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies.Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies.
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