Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling.

By: Baltagi, Badi HContributor(s): Sadka, Efraim | O'Donoghue, CathalMaterial type: TextTextSeries: Contributions to Economic Analysis SerPublisher: Bingley : Emerald Publishing Limited, 2014Copyright date: ©2014Description: 1 online resource (563 pages)Content type: text Media type: computer Carrier type: online resourceISBN: 9781783505708Subject(s): Decision making -- Mathematical models | Political planning -- Mathematical modelsGenre/Form: Electronic books.Additional physical formats: Print version:: Handbook of Microsimulation ModellingDDC classification: 320.6015118 LOC classification: HB1-3840Online resources: Click to View
Contents:
Cover -- Contributions to Economic Analysis 293 -- Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling -- Copyright page -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- List of Tables -- List of Figures -- About the Authors -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.1.1 Target audience -- 1.1.2 Modelling complexity -- 1.2 Overview of the handbook -- 1.2.1 Population complexity -- 1.2.2 Behavioural complexity -- 1.2.3 Temporal and spatial complexity -- 1.2.4 Policy complexity -- 1.2.5 Unit of analysis -- 1.3 Future directions -- Acknowledgement -- References -- Chapter 2 Hypothetical Models -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Context and uses -- 2.2.1 Context of the hypothetical models -- 2.2.2 Policy scope -- 2.2.3 Geographical scope -- 2.2.4 Analytical scope -- 2.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 2.3.1 Interaction with another model -- 2.3.2 Unit of analysis -- 2.3.3 Period of analysis -- 2.3.4 Unit of variation -- 2.3.5 Analytical measure -- 2.3.6 Methods to update the underlying attributes -- 2.3.7 Limitations -- 2.4 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 3 Static Models -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 The use of static microsimulation models -- 3.2.1 Policy scope -- 3.2.2 Geographic scope -- 3.2.3 Analytical scope -- 3.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 3.3.1 Parameterisation in static microsimulation models -- 3.3.2 Baseline data in static microsimulation models -- 3.3.3 Indexation and updating -- 3.3.4 Updating tax-benefit rules -- 3.3.5 Reweighting -- 3.3.6 Projections and static ageing -- 3.3.7 Maintenance and other issues -- 3.4 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 4 Multi-Country Microsimulation -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Context -- 4.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 4.3.1 A fundamental choice -- 4.3.2 Software -- 4.3.3 Data -- 4.3.4 Simulations -- 4.4 Uses and applications.
4.4.1 Comparisons of the effects of existing policies -- 4.4.2 Comparisons of the effects of policy changes -- 4.4.3 Supra national microsimulation -- 4.5 Summary and future directions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 5 Decomposing Changes in Income Distribution -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Context -- 5.2.1 Tax-Benefit Microsimulation -- 5.2.2 Assessing the Effect of Policy Changes Using Decomposition by Income Types -- 5.2.3 Assessing the effect of policy changes using microsimulation -- 5.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 5.3.1 Methodology -- 5.3.2 Choice of nominal adjustments -- 5.3.3 Choice of definition of the policy effect -- 5.3.4 Other choices -- 5.3.5 Data requirements and tax-benefit microsimulation -- 5.4 Uses and applications -- 5.4.1 Quantifying the contribution of past policy reforms -- 5.4.2 Sensitivity to base versus end year data and approximating future policy effects -- 5.5 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 6 Distributional Change during Development -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Context -- 6.3 Methodological considerations -- 6.3.1 A characterization of the statistical approach -- 6.3.2 A nonparametric method -- 6.3.3 Using regression models -- 6.3.4 Using reduced-form models -- 6.3.5 The structural approach -- 6.4 Applications -- 6.4.1 Change in the distribution of earnings -- 6.4.2 Change in the distribution of household income -- 6.4.3 Growth incidence analysis -- 6.4.4 Analysis of the impact of shocks and policy interventions -- 6.5 Summary and future directions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 7 Labour Supply Models -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.1.1 Microsimulation meets microeconometrics -- 7.1.2 A frame of reference -- 7.2 Modelling strategies -- 7.2.1 The 'Reduced Form' approach -- 7.2.2 The structural 'Marginalist' approach -- 7.2.2.1 Dealing with corner solutions.
7.2.2.2 Dealing with unobserved wage rates -- 7.2.2.3 Optimization errors, involuntary unemployment, quantity constraints -- 7.2.2.4 Non-linear budget constraints -- 7.2.3 The random utility maximization approach -- 7.2.3.1 The discrete choice model -- 7.2.3.2 The random utility-Random opportunities model -- 7.2.3.3 The representation of the opportunity set -- 7.2.3.4 Unobserved wage rates -- 7.2.3.5 Involuntary unemployment -- 7.2.3.6 Generalizations and developments -- 7.2.4 How reliable are structural models? -- 7.3 Policy simulation -- 7.3.1 Producing simulation outcomes -- 7.3.1.1 Interpretation of the policy simulation results: short-run, long-run, comparative statics -- 7.3.2 Examples of simulations addressing specific policies or issues -- 7.3.3 Identifying optimal systems -- 7.3.3.1 Empirical applications of theoretical optimal taxation model -- 7.3.3.2 Identification of an optimal rule by searching the policy space -- 7.3.3.3 Optimal taxation by simulation -- 7.4 Social evaluation of policy simulations -- 7.4.1 Individual welfare functions -- 7.4.2 Social welfare functions - the primal and dual approach -- 7.5 Socially optimal income taxes -- 7.6 Conclusions and future perspectives -- References -- Chapter 8 Consumption and Indirect Tax Models -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 What is the role of indirect tax micro-simulation models? -- 8.3 Methodological issues and choices -- 8.3.1 Coverage of the model -- 8.3.2 The core modelling assumptions - what changes in response to a reform? -- 8.3.2.1 Fixed quantities -- 8.3.2.2 Fixed expenditure shares -- 8.3.2.3 Using estimated Engel curves -- 8.3.2.4 Using estimated demand systems -- 8.3.3 Welfare and distributional analysis -- 8.3.3.1 Ranking and grouping households -- 8.3.3.2 Assessing progressivity of a reform or system.
8.3.3.3 Distributional analysis of reforms that involve changes to direct and indirect taxes -- 8.3.4 Data requirements and processing -- 8.4 Examples of indirect tax micro-simulation models -- 8.4.1 Indirect tax micro-simulation in MEXTAX -- 8.4.2 Indirect tax micro-simulation in EUROMOD -- 8.5 Summary and future directions -- References -- Technical appendix -- Using expenditures and retail prices to model excise duties -- Approximations to welfare measures of indirect tax reforms -- Using the Cobb-Douglas indirect Utility Function and Expenditure Function to Calculate Welfare Effects -- Engel Curves -- Welfare Effects with the QUAIDS Demand System -- Chapter 9 Macro-Micro Models -- 9.1. Introduction -- 9.1.1. Context -- 9.2. Methodological characteristics and choices -- 9.2.1. The representative household approach -- 9.2.2. The fully integrated approach -- 9.2.3. The top-down micro-accounting approach -- 9.2.4. The top-down with behaviour approach -- 9.2.5. The bottom-up approach -- 9.2.6. The iterative approach -- 9.2.7. Choice of approach -- 9.2.8. Data considerations -- 9.3. Uses and applications -- 9.3.1. Structural adjustment programmes -- 9.3.2. Trade liberalization -- 9.3.3. Poverty-reduction policies -- 9.3.4. Fiscal reform -- 9.3.5. Agricultural policies -- 9.3.6. Labour market policies -- 9.3.7. Environmental policies -- 9.4. Summary and future directions -- 9.4.1. Behavioural content -- 9.4.2. Social dimensions of well-being -- 9.4.3. Education -- 9.4.4. Health -- 9.4.5. Demographics -- 9.4.6. Rehabilitating the FI approach -- Acknowledgments -- References -- bm_S0573-855520140000293008_nonid4 -- The Aggregation Problem -- Chapter 10 Dynamic Models -- 10.1. Introduction -- 10.2. Uses and applications -- 10.3. Methodological characteristics and choices -- 10.3.1. Base dataset selection -- 10.3.2. Cohort model or population model.
10.3.3. Ageing method in dynamic microsimulation -- 10.3.4. Discrete or continuous time modelling -- 10.3.5. Open versus closed model -- 10.3.6. Link between micro- and macro-models -- 10.3.7. Links and integrations with agent based models -- 10.3.8. Modelling transitions and behaviours -- 10.3.9. Alignment with projections -- 10.3.10. Model complexity -- 10.3.11. Model validation -- 10.4. Summary and future directions -- 10.4.1. Progress of dynamic microsimulation modelling since 1970s -- 10.4.2. Obstacles in the advancement of microsimulation, and some possible solutions -- 10.4.3. Future directions -- 10.5. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 11 Demographic Models -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.1.1 Agent-based modeling? -- 11.1.2 Demographic macrosimulation -- 11.2 Demographic microsimulation: applications -- 11.2.1 Long term changes in fertility and mortality -- 11.2.2 Rules, preferences, and household formation -- 11.2.3 HIV -- 11.2.4 Indirect estimation of demographic quantities -- 11.3 Methodological issues -- 11.3.1 SOCSIM -- 11.3.2 Closed and open populations -- 11.3.3 Time -- 11.3.4 Rates over time -- 11.3.5 Events -- 11.3.5.1 Event lottery -- 11.3.5.2 Birth -- 11.3.5.3 Marriage -- 11.3.6 Marriage queues -- 11.3.7 Homogamy and spousal age difference -- 11.3.8 Heterogeneity -- 11.4 Rate independent population subgroups -- 11.4.1 Rate multipliers -- 11.5 Future directions -- References -- Chapter 12 Spatial Models -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Context -- 12.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 12.3.1 Classification of spatial microsimulation models -- 12.3.2 Benchmarks -- 12.3.3 Synthetic reconstruction methods -- 12.3.4 Reweighting approaches -- 12.3.5 Choosing a method -- 12.3.6 Validation -- 12.4 Uses and applications -- 12.5 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 13 Transportation Models -- 13.1 Introduction.
13.2 Context.
Summary: Microsimulation Modelling involves the application of simulation methods to micro data for the purposes of evaluating the effectiveness and improving the design of public policy. The field has been applied to many different policies within both government and academia. This handbook describes and discusses the main issues within the field.
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Cover -- Contributions to Economic Analysis 293 -- Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling -- Copyright page -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- List of Tables -- List of Figures -- About the Authors -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.1.1 Target audience -- 1.1.2 Modelling complexity -- 1.2 Overview of the handbook -- 1.2.1 Population complexity -- 1.2.2 Behavioural complexity -- 1.2.3 Temporal and spatial complexity -- 1.2.4 Policy complexity -- 1.2.5 Unit of analysis -- 1.3 Future directions -- Acknowledgement -- References -- Chapter 2 Hypothetical Models -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Context and uses -- 2.2.1 Context of the hypothetical models -- 2.2.2 Policy scope -- 2.2.3 Geographical scope -- 2.2.4 Analytical scope -- 2.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 2.3.1 Interaction with another model -- 2.3.2 Unit of analysis -- 2.3.3 Period of analysis -- 2.3.4 Unit of variation -- 2.3.5 Analytical measure -- 2.3.6 Methods to update the underlying attributes -- 2.3.7 Limitations -- 2.4 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 3 Static Models -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 The use of static microsimulation models -- 3.2.1 Policy scope -- 3.2.2 Geographic scope -- 3.2.3 Analytical scope -- 3.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 3.3.1 Parameterisation in static microsimulation models -- 3.3.2 Baseline data in static microsimulation models -- 3.3.3 Indexation and updating -- 3.3.4 Updating tax-benefit rules -- 3.3.5 Reweighting -- 3.3.6 Projections and static ageing -- 3.3.7 Maintenance and other issues -- 3.4 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 4 Multi-Country Microsimulation -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Context -- 4.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 4.3.1 A fundamental choice -- 4.3.2 Software -- 4.3.3 Data -- 4.3.4 Simulations -- 4.4 Uses and applications.

4.4.1 Comparisons of the effects of existing policies -- 4.4.2 Comparisons of the effects of policy changes -- 4.4.3 Supra national microsimulation -- 4.5 Summary and future directions -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Chapter 5 Decomposing Changes in Income Distribution -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Context -- 5.2.1 Tax-Benefit Microsimulation -- 5.2.2 Assessing the Effect of Policy Changes Using Decomposition by Income Types -- 5.2.3 Assessing the effect of policy changes using microsimulation -- 5.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 5.3.1 Methodology -- 5.3.2 Choice of nominal adjustments -- 5.3.3 Choice of definition of the policy effect -- 5.3.4 Other choices -- 5.3.5 Data requirements and tax-benefit microsimulation -- 5.4 Uses and applications -- 5.4.1 Quantifying the contribution of past policy reforms -- 5.4.2 Sensitivity to base versus end year data and approximating future policy effects -- 5.5 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 6 Distributional Change during Development -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Context -- 6.3 Methodological considerations -- 6.3.1 A characterization of the statistical approach -- 6.3.2 A nonparametric method -- 6.3.3 Using regression models -- 6.3.4 Using reduced-form models -- 6.3.5 The structural approach -- 6.4 Applications -- 6.4.1 Change in the distribution of earnings -- 6.4.2 Change in the distribution of household income -- 6.4.3 Growth incidence analysis -- 6.4.4 Analysis of the impact of shocks and policy interventions -- 6.5 Summary and future directions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Chapter 7 Labour Supply Models -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.1.1 Microsimulation meets microeconometrics -- 7.1.2 A frame of reference -- 7.2 Modelling strategies -- 7.2.1 The 'Reduced Form' approach -- 7.2.2 The structural 'Marginalist' approach -- 7.2.2.1 Dealing with corner solutions.

7.2.2.2 Dealing with unobserved wage rates -- 7.2.2.3 Optimization errors, involuntary unemployment, quantity constraints -- 7.2.2.4 Non-linear budget constraints -- 7.2.3 The random utility maximization approach -- 7.2.3.1 The discrete choice model -- 7.2.3.2 The random utility-Random opportunities model -- 7.2.3.3 The representation of the opportunity set -- 7.2.3.4 Unobserved wage rates -- 7.2.3.5 Involuntary unemployment -- 7.2.3.6 Generalizations and developments -- 7.2.4 How reliable are structural models? -- 7.3 Policy simulation -- 7.3.1 Producing simulation outcomes -- 7.3.1.1 Interpretation of the policy simulation results: short-run, long-run, comparative statics -- 7.3.2 Examples of simulations addressing specific policies or issues -- 7.3.3 Identifying optimal systems -- 7.3.3.1 Empirical applications of theoretical optimal taxation model -- 7.3.3.2 Identification of an optimal rule by searching the policy space -- 7.3.3.3 Optimal taxation by simulation -- 7.4 Social evaluation of policy simulations -- 7.4.1 Individual welfare functions -- 7.4.2 Social welfare functions - the primal and dual approach -- 7.5 Socially optimal income taxes -- 7.6 Conclusions and future perspectives -- References -- Chapter 8 Consumption and Indirect Tax Models -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 What is the role of indirect tax micro-simulation models? -- 8.3 Methodological issues and choices -- 8.3.1 Coverage of the model -- 8.3.2 The core modelling assumptions - what changes in response to a reform? -- 8.3.2.1 Fixed quantities -- 8.3.2.2 Fixed expenditure shares -- 8.3.2.3 Using estimated Engel curves -- 8.3.2.4 Using estimated demand systems -- 8.3.3 Welfare and distributional analysis -- 8.3.3.1 Ranking and grouping households -- 8.3.3.2 Assessing progressivity of a reform or system.

8.3.3.3 Distributional analysis of reforms that involve changes to direct and indirect taxes -- 8.3.4 Data requirements and processing -- 8.4 Examples of indirect tax micro-simulation models -- 8.4.1 Indirect tax micro-simulation in MEXTAX -- 8.4.2 Indirect tax micro-simulation in EUROMOD -- 8.5 Summary and future directions -- References -- Technical appendix -- Using expenditures and retail prices to model excise duties -- Approximations to welfare measures of indirect tax reforms -- Using the Cobb-Douglas indirect Utility Function and Expenditure Function to Calculate Welfare Effects -- Engel Curves -- Welfare Effects with the QUAIDS Demand System -- Chapter 9 Macro-Micro Models -- 9.1. Introduction -- 9.1.1. Context -- 9.2. Methodological characteristics and choices -- 9.2.1. The representative household approach -- 9.2.2. The fully integrated approach -- 9.2.3. The top-down micro-accounting approach -- 9.2.4. The top-down with behaviour approach -- 9.2.5. The bottom-up approach -- 9.2.6. The iterative approach -- 9.2.7. Choice of approach -- 9.2.8. Data considerations -- 9.3. Uses and applications -- 9.3.1. Structural adjustment programmes -- 9.3.2. Trade liberalization -- 9.3.3. Poverty-reduction policies -- 9.3.4. Fiscal reform -- 9.3.5. Agricultural policies -- 9.3.6. Labour market policies -- 9.3.7. Environmental policies -- 9.4. Summary and future directions -- 9.4.1. Behavioural content -- 9.4.2. Social dimensions of well-being -- 9.4.3. Education -- 9.4.4. Health -- 9.4.5. Demographics -- 9.4.6. Rehabilitating the FI approach -- Acknowledgments -- References -- bm_S0573-855520140000293008_nonid4 -- The Aggregation Problem -- Chapter 10 Dynamic Models -- 10.1. Introduction -- 10.2. Uses and applications -- 10.3. Methodological characteristics and choices -- 10.3.1. Base dataset selection -- 10.3.2. Cohort model or population model.

10.3.3. Ageing method in dynamic microsimulation -- 10.3.4. Discrete or continuous time modelling -- 10.3.5. Open versus closed model -- 10.3.6. Link between micro- and macro-models -- 10.3.7. Links and integrations with agent based models -- 10.3.8. Modelling transitions and behaviours -- 10.3.9. Alignment with projections -- 10.3.10. Model complexity -- 10.3.11. Model validation -- 10.4. Summary and future directions -- 10.4.1. Progress of dynamic microsimulation modelling since 1970s -- 10.4.2. Obstacles in the advancement of microsimulation, and some possible solutions -- 10.4.3. Future directions -- 10.5. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 11 Demographic Models -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.1.1 Agent-based modeling? -- 11.1.2 Demographic macrosimulation -- 11.2 Demographic microsimulation: applications -- 11.2.1 Long term changes in fertility and mortality -- 11.2.2 Rules, preferences, and household formation -- 11.2.3 HIV -- 11.2.4 Indirect estimation of demographic quantities -- 11.3 Methodological issues -- 11.3.1 SOCSIM -- 11.3.2 Closed and open populations -- 11.3.3 Time -- 11.3.4 Rates over time -- 11.3.5 Events -- 11.3.5.1 Event lottery -- 11.3.5.2 Birth -- 11.3.5.3 Marriage -- 11.3.6 Marriage queues -- 11.3.7 Homogamy and spousal age difference -- 11.3.8 Heterogeneity -- 11.4 Rate independent population subgroups -- 11.4.1 Rate multipliers -- 11.5 Future directions -- References -- Chapter 12 Spatial Models -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Context -- 12.3 Methodological characteristics and choices -- 12.3.1 Classification of spatial microsimulation models -- 12.3.2 Benchmarks -- 12.3.3 Synthetic reconstruction methods -- 12.3.4 Reweighting approaches -- 12.3.5 Choosing a method -- 12.3.6 Validation -- 12.4 Uses and applications -- 12.5 Summary and future directions -- References -- Chapter 13 Transportation Models -- 13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Context.

Microsimulation Modelling involves the application of simulation methods to micro data for the purposes of evaluating the effectiveness and improving the design of public policy. The field has been applied to many different policies within both government and academia. This handbook describes and discusses the main issues within the field.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.

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