Fiscal Sustainability : A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed.

By: Tanner, EvanMaterial type: TextTextSeries: IMF Working PapersPublisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2013Copyright date: ©2013Description: 1 online resource (93 pages)Content type: text Media type: computer Carrier type: online resourceISBN: 9781484301616Subject(s): Convergence (Economics) -- Econometric models | Fiscal policy -- Econometric modelsGenre/Form: Electronic books.Additional physical formats: Print version:: Fiscal Sustainability : A 21st Century Guide for the PerplexedDDC classification: 338.12689 LOC classification: HJ192 -- .T36 2013ebOnline resources: Click to View
Contents:
Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Tables -- Figures -- I. Introduction -- 1. Government Debt/GDP, Selected Countries, Weighted Average -- II. The Building Blocks of a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) -- A. The Public Sector Budget Constraint -- B. Ad-Hoc Targets For The Public Debt and/or The Primary Surplus -- C. Alternative Scenarios in a Debt Sustainability Analysis -- 1. Summary, Recent Research on Public Debt Sustainability, Stochastic Approach -- III. The Government's Present Value Constraint: A Restatement -- IV. Maximum Sustainable Debt -- V. Distributing Surpluses Over Time: A Fiscal Objective Function -- A. Objective: How To Distribute The Fiscal Burden Over Time -- B. Objective Functions and Structural Surpluses-Further Considerations -- C. Debt and Expenditure Smoothing-Evidence From the Recent Downturn -- 2. Industrialized Countries: Change in Primary Government Spending (ratio to GDP) 2009 Minus 2008 (vertical axis), and Net Public Debt/GDP (horizontal axis) -- 3. Emerging Economies: Change in Primary Government Spending (ratio to GDP) 2009 minus 2008 (vertical axis), and Net Public Debt/GDP (horizontal axis) -- VI. Required Adjustment in an Uncertain Environment -- 2. Target Primary Surplus, Probabilistic Approach -- 4. Target Primary Surplus, "Low" Volatility Case -- 3. Example of Tax Smoothing with Uncertain Potential Output -- 5. Target Primary Surplus, "High" Volatility Case -- VIII. Prospective Liabilities -- 4. Long-run Fiscal Imbalances in the United States -- IX. The Net Worth Approach -- X. Non-Renewable Resources -- 5. Non-Renewable Resource Management: Permanent Income and "Bird-In-Hand" Approaches -- 6. Approximate Sovereign Cumulative Default Probabilities: 5-year bonds -- 7. Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability for a Hypothetical Economy: A Contingent Claims Approach.
XII. Summary and Conclusions -- References -- XI. Contingent Claims Analysis and Market Indicators of Default Risk -- VII. Sustainability Over The Business Cycle -- Footnotes.
Summary: This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro's 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
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Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Tables -- Figures -- I. Introduction -- 1. Government Debt/GDP, Selected Countries, Weighted Average -- II. The Building Blocks of a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) -- A. The Public Sector Budget Constraint -- B. Ad-Hoc Targets For The Public Debt and/or The Primary Surplus -- C. Alternative Scenarios in a Debt Sustainability Analysis -- 1. Summary, Recent Research on Public Debt Sustainability, Stochastic Approach -- III. The Government's Present Value Constraint: A Restatement -- IV. Maximum Sustainable Debt -- V. Distributing Surpluses Over Time: A Fiscal Objective Function -- A. Objective: How To Distribute The Fiscal Burden Over Time -- B. Objective Functions and Structural Surpluses-Further Considerations -- C. Debt and Expenditure Smoothing-Evidence From the Recent Downturn -- 2. Industrialized Countries: Change in Primary Government Spending (ratio to GDP) 2009 Minus 2008 (vertical axis), and Net Public Debt/GDP (horizontal axis) -- 3. Emerging Economies: Change in Primary Government Spending (ratio to GDP) 2009 minus 2008 (vertical axis), and Net Public Debt/GDP (horizontal axis) -- VI. Required Adjustment in an Uncertain Environment -- 2. Target Primary Surplus, Probabilistic Approach -- 4. Target Primary Surplus, "Low" Volatility Case -- 3. Example of Tax Smoothing with Uncertain Potential Output -- 5. Target Primary Surplus, "High" Volatility Case -- VIII. Prospective Liabilities -- 4. Long-run Fiscal Imbalances in the United States -- IX. The Net Worth Approach -- X. Non-Renewable Resources -- 5. Non-Renewable Resource Management: Permanent Income and "Bird-In-Hand" Approaches -- 6. Approximate Sovereign Cumulative Default Probabilities: 5-year bonds -- 7. Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability for a Hypothetical Economy: A Contingent Claims Approach.

XII. Summary and Conclusions -- References -- XI. Contingent Claims Analysis and Market Indicators of Default Risk -- VII. Sustainability Over The Business Cycle -- Footnotes.

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro's 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.

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