Working through the Crisis : Jobs and Policies in Developing Countries during the Great Recession.

By: Banerji, ArupContributor(s): Newhouse, David | Paci, Pierella | Newhouse, David Locke | Robalino, David AMaterial type: TextTextSeries: Directions in Development - Human DevelopmenPublisher: Herndon : World Bank Publications, 2013Copyright date: ©2013Description: 1 online resource (241 pages)Content type: text Media type: computer Carrier type: online resourceISBN: 9780821394625Subject(s): Developing countries -- Social policy | Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 | Income distribution -- Developing countries | Labor supply -- Developing countriesGenre/Form: Electronic books.Additional physical formats: Print version:: Working through the Crisis : Jobs and Policies in Developing Countries during the Great RecessionDDC classification: 331.1209172/4090511 LOC classification: HD5706 -- .W675 2013ebOnline resources: Click to View
Contents:
Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Overview -- Introduction -- Impacts -- Policies -- Recovery -- Looking Forward -- Annex 1A -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 2 Fewer Jobs or Smaller Paychecks? Aggregate Crisis Impacts in Selected Middle-Income Countries -- The Disconnect between the Impact of the Crisis and the Policy Responses -- Data and Methodology -- The Extent and Nature of the Labor Market Adjustment -- In Which Countries Were Adjustments Unexpectedly Large? -- How Accurate Were Projections of Employment Changes? -- From Evidence to Policy Responses -- Annex 2A -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 How Did the Great Recession Affect Different Types of Workers? Evidence from 17 Middle-Income Countries -- About This Study -- What Explains Differential Impacts across Groups? -- Data and Methodology -- Aggregate Labor Market Adjustments -- Group Differences in Labor Market Adjustments -- Group Differences among Active Workers -- Conclusion -- Annex 3A -- Technical Note -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4 Labor and Social Protection Policies during the Crisis and the Recovery -- The Role of Labor and Social Protection Policies during a Downturn -- Social Protection and Labor Policies and Their Link to the Type of Shock and Labor Market Adjustment -- What Can Be Done to Be Better Prepared in the Future? -- Annex 4A: Description of the Policy Inventory -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 The Labor Market Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis in Indonesia -- Indonesian Macroeconomic Context -- The Response of the Indonesian Government to the Crisis -- Data -- Results -- Summary and Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 6 Weathering a Storm: Survey-Based Perspectives on Employment in China in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis -- Analyzing the Effects of the Crisis.
The Trajectory of China's Economic Growth and the Global Financial Crisis -- The Financial Crisis and Shocks to Employment -- Government Policies, the Recovery, and the Labor Market -- Wage Income in the Wake of the Financial Crisis -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 7 Effects of the 2008-09 Economic Crisis on Labor Markets in Mexico -- The Nature of the Crisis -- Labor Market Adjustments during the Crisis and Recovery -- Impacts on Sectors and Types of Workers -- Labor Market Transitions during the Crisis -- Policies for Coping with the Crisis -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Figures -- Figure 1.1 Transmission Channels between Initial Shocks and Micro and Macro Outcomes -- Figure 1.2 Changes in GDP Growth and Employment in Selected Developing Countries -- Figure 1A.1 Median GDP Growth and Labor Market Indicators in Selected Developing Countries -- Figure 1A.2 Share of Population Reporting Good Time to Find a Job, by Year and Income Group -- Figure 1A.3 Employment to Population Ratio, by Year, Income Group, and Gender -- Figure 1A.4 Unemployment Rate, by Year, Income Group, and Gender -- Figure 1A.5 Share of Employment in Full-Time Wage Work, by Year, Income Group, and Gender -- Figure 2.1 Growth of GDP, Real Earnings, Employment, and the Wage Bill, March 2007-September 2009 -- Figure 2.2 Growth in Hours Worked, the Consumer Price Index, Real Earnings, and Nominal Earnings in Selected Middle-Income Countries, March 2007-September 2009 -- Figure 2.3 Change in the Growth of Hours Worked in 14 Developing Economies, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.4 Decomposition of the Change in the Growth of the Wage Bill, Earnings, and Wage Rates in 14 Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period.
Figure 2.5 Breakdown in the Causes of the Slowdown in the Growth of GDP per Adult in 33 Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.6 Change in Employment Growth in Nine Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.7 Change in Earnings and Employment Growth by GDP Growth, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.8 Change in Unemployment and Participation by GDP Growth, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.9 Correlations between Country Characteristics and Employment Loss and Earnings in 35 Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.10 Correlations between Country Characteristics and Change in Unemployment and Participation in 36 Developing Countries, Postcrisis vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 3.1 Sectoral Employment Shares by Gender, 2007 -- Figure 3.2 Sectoral Employment Shares by Age Group, 2007 -- Figure 3.3 Aggregate Adjustment among Labor Force in Unemployment Rate and Employment Sector, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.4 Aggregate Adjustments among Workers in Earnings, Hours, and Wage Rates, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.5 Group Comparisons: Employment-to-Population Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.6 Group Comparisons: Wage Employee-to-Population Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.7 Group Comparisons: Nonparticipation-to-Population Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.8 Age and Gender Comparisons with Three Groups: Employment Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.9 Group Comparisons: Share of Wage Employment among Labor Force, 2006-09 -- Figure 3A.1 Gender Comparisons by Education: Employment Ratio, Unemployment Ratio, and Nonparticipation Ratio -- Figure 4.1 Typology of Policies to Mitigate the Impact of the Financial Crisis -- Figure 4.2 Risk of Unemployment of Formal and Informal Sector Workers in Brazil, March 2002-September 2009.
Figure 4.3 Percentage of Countries Adopting Labor or Social Protection Policies, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.4 Percentage of Labor or Social Protection Interventions That Were New, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.5 Average Total Country Expenditure as a Share of GDP, by Year and Program Type, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.6 Median Number of Total Program Beneficiaries as a Share of the Labor Force, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.7 Policy Responses and Slowdowns in Output and Employment Growth -- Figure 4.8 Programs Targeting Youth and Women and Women in Selected Countries, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.9 Share of Policies That Support Income Protection, Labor Demand, and Labor Market Adjustment in Selected Developing Countries, 2009 -- Figure 4.10 The Percentage of Chilean Workers Covered by Unemployment Benefits and the Unemployment Rate, 2000-10 -- Figure 4.11 Changes in Fiscal Balance and GDP Growth during the Financial Crisis in Selected Countries, 2007-10 -- Figure 4A.1 Number of Countries in the Policy Inventory and Number of Unique Programs, 2008-09 -- Figure 6.1 Annual and Quarterly GDP Percentage Growth Rates for China and Other Major Economies, 2000-09 -- Figure 6.2 Monthly Changes in the Total Value of Imports and Exports, January 2006-November 2009 -- Figure 6.3 China's Quarterly Growth Rates by Sector, 2004-09 -- Figure 6.4 Quarterly Ratio of Vacancies to Job Seekers in China, 2001-09 -- Figure 6.5 Quarterly Ratio of Vacancies to Job Seekers in China, by Gender, 2001-09 -- Figure 6.6 Monthly Share of Rural Labor Force with Off-Farm Employment: Actual and Under a Business-as-Usual Counterfactual, May 2007-April 2009 -- Figure 6.7 Composition of China's 4 Trillion Yuan Stimulus Package in 2009 -- Figure 6.8 Real Wages of Employed Migrants according to Three Data Sources, 2001-09 -- Figure 7.1 Changes in Annual Inflation and the Exchange Rate in Mexico, 2007-10.
Figure 7.2 GDP and Components of Aggregate Demand in Mexico during the Financial Crisis, Second Quarter of 2008-Second Quarter of 2010 -- Figure 7.3 Total Employment in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.4 Total Unemployment in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.5 Quarterly Percentage of Workers by Occupation and Access to Social Security Benefits in Mexico, 2007-10 -- Figure 7.6 Real Hourly Wage Growth for Formal and Informal Workers in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.7 Quarterly Variation in Numbers of Workers Employed in Various Types of Economic Activity in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.8 Monthly Wage Indexes for Workers in Selected Industries in Mexico, January 2007-January 2011 -- Figure 7.9 Changes in Employment and Wages Due to the Economic Crisis in Mexico, 2009 and 2010 -- Figure 7.10 Unemployment Withdrawals from Pension Accounts and the Unemployment Rate in Mexico, January 2008-January 2011 -- Map -- Map 4.1 Years of Available Data on Country Labor Markets, 2000-08 -- Tables -- Table 1A.1 Labor Market Indicators for Selected Developing Countries -- Table 1A.2 Annual GDP Growth and Labor Market Outcomes in Developing Countries -- Table 2.1 Employment Growth and GDP Growth in 37 Developing Countries, Precrisis Period vs. Postcrisis Period -- Table 2A.1 Summary of Labor Market Trends and Data Sources, by Economy, Precrisis Period vs. Postcrisis Period -- Table 2A.2 Characteristics of Data Sources -- Table 2A.3 Average Annual Changes in Labor Market Indicators, Precrisis Period vs. Postcrisis Period -- Table 2A.4 Estimates of Elasticity of Employment with Respect to Growth, by Period -- Table 3.1 Data Used for the Analysis -- Table 3.2 Changes in Employment Trends from Pre- to Postcrisis in Mexico -- Table 3.3 Decomposition of Employment Ratio between Changes Due to Employment Rate and Those Due to Labor Force Participation.
Table 3.4 Decomposition of Gender Disparities in Employment Ratio Changes by Sector and Status.
Summary: The end of the MFA was followed by rising apparel exports, falling prices, and a reallocation of production and employment between countries. There were also significant changes within countries. The first main finding of this report is that export and employment patterns after the MFA/ATC did not necessarily match predictions. While many predicted that production would shift to low-wage countries, this book shows that only 13 percent of variation in export changes post-MFA can be explained by the differences in wage levels. Second, changes in exports are usually, but not always, good indicators of what happens to wages and employment within countries. This is especially important for policy because it shows that simply using exports as a metric of 'success' in terms of helping the poor is not sufficient. Third, the Book identifies the specific ways that changes in the global apparel market affected earnings. The Book shows that wage premiums change in predictable ways: rising (in most cases) in countries that were proactive in adapting to the MFA phase-out and expanded their market shares, and falling in countries that failed to respond in a timely fashion to the changing environment. The Book shows that promoting 'upgrading' (defined as shifting to higher-value goods, shifting up the value chain, or 'modernizing' production techniques) seems to be necessary for sustainable competitiveness in the apparel sector but does not necessarily help the poor. Policies that support upgrading need to be complemented with targeted workforce development to make sure that the most vulnerable workers are not left behind. Having a vision for the evolution of the apparel sector that incorporates developing worker skills seems crucial. Otherwise, less-skilled workers could miss out on opportunities to gain valuable work experience in manufacturing.
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Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Overview -- Introduction -- Impacts -- Policies -- Recovery -- Looking Forward -- Annex 1A -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 2 Fewer Jobs or Smaller Paychecks? Aggregate Crisis Impacts in Selected Middle-Income Countries -- The Disconnect between the Impact of the Crisis and the Policy Responses -- Data and Methodology -- The Extent and Nature of the Labor Market Adjustment -- In Which Countries Were Adjustments Unexpectedly Large? -- How Accurate Were Projections of Employment Changes? -- From Evidence to Policy Responses -- Annex 2A -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 How Did the Great Recession Affect Different Types of Workers? Evidence from 17 Middle-Income Countries -- About This Study -- What Explains Differential Impacts across Groups? -- Data and Methodology -- Aggregate Labor Market Adjustments -- Group Differences in Labor Market Adjustments -- Group Differences among Active Workers -- Conclusion -- Annex 3A -- Technical Note -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4 Labor and Social Protection Policies during the Crisis and the Recovery -- The Role of Labor and Social Protection Policies during a Downturn -- Social Protection and Labor Policies and Their Link to the Type of Shock and Labor Market Adjustment -- What Can Be Done to Be Better Prepared in the Future? -- Annex 4A: Description of the Policy Inventory -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 The Labor Market Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis in Indonesia -- Indonesian Macroeconomic Context -- The Response of the Indonesian Government to the Crisis -- Data -- Results -- Summary and Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 6 Weathering a Storm: Survey-Based Perspectives on Employment in China in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis -- Analyzing the Effects of the Crisis.

The Trajectory of China's Economic Growth and the Global Financial Crisis -- The Financial Crisis and Shocks to Employment -- Government Policies, the Recovery, and the Labor Market -- Wage Income in the Wake of the Financial Crisis -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 7 Effects of the 2008-09 Economic Crisis on Labor Markets in Mexico -- The Nature of the Crisis -- Labor Market Adjustments during the Crisis and Recovery -- Impacts on Sectors and Types of Workers -- Labor Market Transitions during the Crisis -- Policies for Coping with the Crisis -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Figures -- Figure 1.1 Transmission Channels between Initial Shocks and Micro and Macro Outcomes -- Figure 1.2 Changes in GDP Growth and Employment in Selected Developing Countries -- Figure 1A.1 Median GDP Growth and Labor Market Indicators in Selected Developing Countries -- Figure 1A.2 Share of Population Reporting Good Time to Find a Job, by Year and Income Group -- Figure 1A.3 Employment to Population Ratio, by Year, Income Group, and Gender -- Figure 1A.4 Unemployment Rate, by Year, Income Group, and Gender -- Figure 1A.5 Share of Employment in Full-Time Wage Work, by Year, Income Group, and Gender -- Figure 2.1 Growth of GDP, Real Earnings, Employment, and the Wage Bill, March 2007-September 2009 -- Figure 2.2 Growth in Hours Worked, the Consumer Price Index, Real Earnings, and Nominal Earnings in Selected Middle-Income Countries, March 2007-September 2009 -- Figure 2.3 Change in the Growth of Hours Worked in 14 Developing Economies, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.4 Decomposition of the Change in the Growth of the Wage Bill, Earnings, and Wage Rates in 14 Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period.

Figure 2.5 Breakdown in the Causes of the Slowdown in the Growth of GDP per Adult in 33 Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.6 Change in Employment Growth in Nine Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.7 Change in Earnings and Employment Growth by GDP Growth, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.8 Change in Unemployment and Participation by GDP Growth, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.9 Correlations between Country Characteristics and Employment Loss and Earnings in 35 Developing Countries, Postcrisis Period vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 2.10 Correlations between Country Characteristics and Change in Unemployment and Participation in 36 Developing Countries, Postcrisis vs. Precrisis Period -- Figure 3.1 Sectoral Employment Shares by Gender, 2007 -- Figure 3.2 Sectoral Employment Shares by Age Group, 2007 -- Figure 3.3 Aggregate Adjustment among Labor Force in Unemployment Rate and Employment Sector, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.4 Aggregate Adjustments among Workers in Earnings, Hours, and Wage Rates, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.5 Group Comparisons: Employment-to-Population Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.6 Group Comparisons: Wage Employee-to-Population Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.7 Group Comparisons: Nonparticipation-to-Population Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.8 Age and Gender Comparisons with Three Groups: Employment Ratio, 2006-09 -- Figure 3.9 Group Comparisons: Share of Wage Employment among Labor Force, 2006-09 -- Figure 3A.1 Gender Comparisons by Education: Employment Ratio, Unemployment Ratio, and Nonparticipation Ratio -- Figure 4.1 Typology of Policies to Mitigate the Impact of the Financial Crisis -- Figure 4.2 Risk of Unemployment of Formal and Informal Sector Workers in Brazil, March 2002-September 2009.

Figure 4.3 Percentage of Countries Adopting Labor or Social Protection Policies, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.4 Percentage of Labor or Social Protection Interventions That Were New, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.5 Average Total Country Expenditure as a Share of GDP, by Year and Program Type, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.6 Median Number of Total Program Beneficiaries as a Share of the Labor Force, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.7 Policy Responses and Slowdowns in Output and Employment Growth -- Figure 4.8 Programs Targeting Youth and Women and Women in Selected Countries, 2008-09 -- Figure 4.9 Share of Policies That Support Income Protection, Labor Demand, and Labor Market Adjustment in Selected Developing Countries, 2009 -- Figure 4.10 The Percentage of Chilean Workers Covered by Unemployment Benefits and the Unemployment Rate, 2000-10 -- Figure 4.11 Changes in Fiscal Balance and GDP Growth during the Financial Crisis in Selected Countries, 2007-10 -- Figure 4A.1 Number of Countries in the Policy Inventory and Number of Unique Programs, 2008-09 -- Figure 6.1 Annual and Quarterly GDP Percentage Growth Rates for China and Other Major Economies, 2000-09 -- Figure 6.2 Monthly Changes in the Total Value of Imports and Exports, January 2006-November 2009 -- Figure 6.3 China's Quarterly Growth Rates by Sector, 2004-09 -- Figure 6.4 Quarterly Ratio of Vacancies to Job Seekers in China, 2001-09 -- Figure 6.5 Quarterly Ratio of Vacancies to Job Seekers in China, by Gender, 2001-09 -- Figure 6.6 Monthly Share of Rural Labor Force with Off-Farm Employment: Actual and Under a Business-as-Usual Counterfactual, May 2007-April 2009 -- Figure 6.7 Composition of China's 4 Trillion Yuan Stimulus Package in 2009 -- Figure 6.8 Real Wages of Employed Migrants according to Three Data Sources, 2001-09 -- Figure 7.1 Changes in Annual Inflation and the Exchange Rate in Mexico, 2007-10.

Figure 7.2 GDP and Components of Aggregate Demand in Mexico during the Financial Crisis, Second Quarter of 2008-Second Quarter of 2010 -- Figure 7.3 Total Employment in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.4 Total Unemployment in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.5 Quarterly Percentage of Workers by Occupation and Access to Social Security Benefits in Mexico, 2007-10 -- Figure 7.6 Real Hourly Wage Growth for Formal and Informal Workers in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.7 Quarterly Variation in Numbers of Workers Employed in Various Types of Economic Activity in Mexico, 2008-10 -- Figure 7.8 Monthly Wage Indexes for Workers in Selected Industries in Mexico, January 2007-January 2011 -- Figure 7.9 Changes in Employment and Wages Due to the Economic Crisis in Mexico, 2009 and 2010 -- Figure 7.10 Unemployment Withdrawals from Pension Accounts and the Unemployment Rate in Mexico, January 2008-January 2011 -- Map -- Map 4.1 Years of Available Data on Country Labor Markets, 2000-08 -- Tables -- Table 1A.1 Labor Market Indicators for Selected Developing Countries -- Table 1A.2 Annual GDP Growth and Labor Market Outcomes in Developing Countries -- Table 2.1 Employment Growth and GDP Growth in 37 Developing Countries, Precrisis Period vs. Postcrisis Period -- Table 2A.1 Summary of Labor Market Trends and Data Sources, by Economy, Precrisis Period vs. Postcrisis Period -- Table 2A.2 Characteristics of Data Sources -- Table 2A.3 Average Annual Changes in Labor Market Indicators, Precrisis Period vs. Postcrisis Period -- Table 2A.4 Estimates of Elasticity of Employment with Respect to Growth, by Period -- Table 3.1 Data Used for the Analysis -- Table 3.2 Changes in Employment Trends from Pre- to Postcrisis in Mexico -- Table 3.3 Decomposition of Employment Ratio between Changes Due to Employment Rate and Those Due to Labor Force Participation.

Table 3.4 Decomposition of Gender Disparities in Employment Ratio Changes by Sector and Status.

The end of the MFA was followed by rising apparel exports, falling prices, and a reallocation of production and employment between countries. There were also significant changes within countries. The first main finding of this report is that export and employment patterns after the MFA/ATC did not necessarily match predictions. While many predicted that production would shift to low-wage countries, this book shows that only 13 percent of variation in export changes post-MFA can be explained by the differences in wage levels. Second, changes in exports are usually, but not always, good indicators of what happens to wages and employment within countries. This is especially important for policy because it shows that simply using exports as a metric of 'success' in terms of helping the poor is not sufficient. Third, the Book identifies the specific ways that changes in the global apparel market affected earnings. The Book shows that wage premiums change in predictable ways: rising (in most cases) in countries that were proactive in adapting to the MFA phase-out and expanded their market shares, and falling in countries that failed to respond in a timely fashion to the changing environment. The Book shows that promoting 'upgrading' (defined as shifting to higher-value goods, shifting up the value chain, or 'modernizing' production techniques) seems to be necessary for sustainable competitiveness in the apparel sector but does not necessarily help the poor. Policies that support upgrading need to be complemented with targeted workforce development to make sure that the most vulnerable workers are not left behind. Having a vision for the evolution of the apparel sector that incorporates developing worker skills seems crucial. Otherwise, less-skilled workers could miss out on opportunities to gain valuable work experience in manufacturing.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.

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