Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- List of contributors -- Preface -- Introduction: contending views -- Introduction -- From eternal peace to obsolescent war? -- Technology: peaceful or warlike? -- The rise and decline of major-power war -- International system structure -- Nuclear weapons -- Institutions, norms, and values -- Democracy and capitalism -- Conclusion -- Notes -- Part I: Debating the Past and Future of Major War -- 1. The life and death of a long peace, 1763-1914 -- What is the question, and can history help answer it? -- Why international history is more about explaining peace than war -- Why great wars are not inevitable and instances of long peace not rare -- How can one show this and at least make it plausible in a brief overview? -- Cases of general and specific long peace -- A special long peace: Austria, Germany, and Russia 1763-1914 -- Explanations of this long peace that fail to explain it -- The importance of this long peace -- Explaining the long peace: the right starting point -- The stages of this peace, and what they show -- The elements making this long peace possible and sustainable -- Why the underpinnings of this peace were unusual, and yet endured -- Explaining the breakdown: not German challenge, but Russian defection -- Two illustrations of Russia's defection, and a bit of explanation -- What does it all mean? -- Notes -- 2. Accounting for the waning of major war -- Changing attitudes toward war -- Alternative explanations for the decline of war -- Nuclear weapons -- Economic development and the industrial revolution -- The rising costs of war -- The expansion of democracy -- Increased trade, interdependence -- The development of international institutions and norms -- The remnants of war -- Notes -- 3. Trends in major war: too early for waning? -- Is major war waning?.

Are some major wars waning? -- Definition 1: major war as Prussian warfare -- Definition 2: major war as war between major powers -- Definition 3: major war as wars by developed countries -- Definition 4: major war as regional war -- Definition 5: major war as war with global impact -- Summary -- Implications: when can we expect the waning of major war? -- Acknowledgment -- Notes -- Part II: Systemic causes of major wars and their decline -- 4. The waning of major war -- Notes -- 5. The risk of nuclear war does not belong to history -- Risk of nuclear war during the Cold War era -- Post-Cold War relations among nuclear powers -- Accidental wars -- Systemic changes and the prospects of major power nuclear war -- Missile defense systems and strategic stability -- Missile defenses and instability -- The new US national security strategy and nuclear use -- Prospects of nuclear war among the new nuclear states -- Terrorism and nuclear war -- Conclusions -- Acknowledgment -- Notes -- Part III: The international system and institutions -- 6. The decline of interstate war: pondering systemic explanations -- Changes in the international system: the role of ideas -- The declining incidence of interstate war: norm-based explanations -- Changing power distributions in the international system and the decline of war -- Social learning and the decline of interstate war: special kinds of ideas -- Conclusion -- Notes -- 7. Multilateral institutions as restraints on major war -- On the relevant wars -- On multilateral institutions -- Thinking about MIs and major wars -- Specifically preventing major wars -- Claimed contributions -- Two cases -- Conclusions -- Notes -- 8. Normative transformations in international relations and the waning of major war -- Introduction: Was there really a Long Peace? Will it last? -- A methodology for studying norms based explanations.

Norms, belief systems, and the end of empire -- The extension of territorial sovereignty -- The internal consistency and external compatibility of the sovereignty claim -- Strategic interests in expanding the principle of territorial sovereignty -- Reinforcement from the international environment -- The victory of liberal economic doctrine -- Consistency and compatibility -- Strategic incentives to adopt liberalism -- Reinforcement from the international environment -- Utilitarian conventions or social scripts? -- Conclusions: Will peace between the major powers last? -- Acknowledgment -- Notes -- Part IV: Long-term perspectives on major war -- 9. The democratic peace and civil society as constraints on major power warfare -- Major power warfare -- The constraints of the democratic peace and civil society -- Two planes passing in the night? -- A modified trading state theory -- Alternative futures -- Notes -- 10. Capitalism, war, and peace: virtual or vicious circles -- Introduction -- Feudalism -- The nature of the feudal system -- Feudalism and war -- Transitions from feudalism -- State-making and war -- England -- The European continent -- Absolutism and war -- The nature of the absolutist armies -- Commercial capitalism -- Ideologies of trade and peace -- The development of commercial capitalism -- Commerce and war -- Industrial capitalism -- Concentration and war -- Digital capitalism -- Conclusion -- Notes -- 11. The changing probability of interstate war, 1816-1992 -- Query -- Findings on interstate war -- Findings on major state war and other types of war -- Conclusion -- Acknowledgment -- Notes -- Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Websites -- Name index -- Subject index.

This book is a systematic effort by leading international scholars to map the trends in major-power warfare and explore whether it is waxing or waning. The main point of departure is that major-power war as a historical institution is in decline. This does not mean, though, that wars between states are in general disappearing. While there is some convergence in the conclusions by individual authors, they are by no means unanimous about the trend. The articles explore different causes and correlates of the declining trend in major-power warfare, including the impact of the international structure, nuclear weapons, international law, multilateral institutions, sovereignty and value changes.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.