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The Business Forecasting Deal : (Record no. 74591)

000 -LEADER
fixed length control field	06675nam a22004933i 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field	EBC537339
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field	MiAaPQ
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field	20181121154312.0
006 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--ADDITIONAL MATERIAL CHARACTERISTICS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field	m o d \|
007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field	cr cnu\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field	181113s2010 xx o \|\|\|\|0 eng d
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number	9780470769638
--	(electronic bk.)
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
Cancelled/invalid ISBN	9780470574430
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(MiAaPQ)EBC537339
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(Au-PeEL)EBL537339
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(CaPaEBR)ebr10389612
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(CaONFJC)MIL268324
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(OCoLC)638860372
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Original cataloging agency	MiAaPQ
Language of cataloging	eng
Description conventions	rda
--	pn
Transcribing agency	MiAaPQ
Modifying agency	MiAaPQ
050 #4 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER
Classification number	HD30.27 -- .G55 2010eb
082 0# - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number	658.40355
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Gilliland, Michael.
245 14 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title	The Business Forecasting Deal :
Remainder of title	Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions.
250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT
Edition statement	1st ed.
264 #1 - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Place of publication, distribution, etc	New York :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc	John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,
Date of publication, distribution, etc	2010.
264 #4 - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Date of publication, distribution, etc	©2010.
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent	1 online resource (275 pages)
336 ## - CONTENT TYPE
Content type term	text
Content type code	txt
Source	rdacontent
337 ## - MEDIA TYPE
Media type term	computer
Media type code	c
Source	rdamedia
338 ## - CARRIER TYPE
Carrier type term	online resource
Carrier type code	cr
Source	rdacarrier
490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT
Series statement	Wiley and SAS Business Ser. ;
Volume number/sequential designation	v.27
505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note	The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Prologue -- Chapter 1: Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting -- THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION -- THE REALITIES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING -- THE CONTEST -- WHAT IS DEMAND? -- CONSTRAINED FORECAST -- DEMAND VOLATILITY -- INHERENT VOLATILITY AND ARTIFICIAL VOLATILITY -- EVILS OF VOLATILITY -- EVALUATING FORECAST PERFORMANCE -- EMBARKING ON IMPROVEMENT -- NOTES -- Chapter 2: Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 1 -- WORST PRACTICES IN THE MECHANICS OF FORECASTING -- MODEL "OVERFITTING" AND "PICK-BEST" SELECTION -- CONFUSING MODEL FIT WITH FORECAST ACCURACY -- ACCURACY EXPECTATIONS AND PERFORMANCE GOALS -- FAILURE TO USE A NAÏVE MODEL OR ASSESS FORECAST VALUE ADDED -- FORECASTING HIERARCHIES -- OUTLIER HANDLING -- NOTES -- Chapter 3: Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 2 -- WORST PRACTICES IN THE PROCESS AND PRACTICES OF FORECASTING -- POLITICS OF FORECASTING -- BLAMING THE FORECAST -- ADDING VARIATION TO DEMAND -- EVANGELICAL FORECASTING -- OVERINVESTING IN THE FORECASTING FUNCTION -- FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND REPORTING -- FORECASTING SOFTWARE SELECTION -- EDITORIAL COMMENT ON FORECASTING PRACTICES -- NOTES -- Chapter 4: Forecast Value Added Analysis -- WHAT IS FORECAST VALUE ADDED? -- THE NAÏVE FORECAST -- WHY IS FVA IMPORTANT? -- FVA ANALYSIS: STEP-BY-STEP -- FURTHER APPLICATION OF FVA ANALYSIS -- CASE STUDIES -- SUMMARY: THE LEAN APPROACH TO FORECASTING -- NOTES -- Chapter 5: Forecasting without History -- TYPICAL NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING SITUATIONS -- NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING BY STRUCTURED ANALOGY -- ORGANIZATIONAL REALIGNMENT -- SUMMARY -- NOTES -- Chapter 6: Alternative Approaches to the Problems of Business Forecasting -- STATISTICAL APPROACH -- COLLABORATIVE APPROACH.
505 8# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note	SUPPLY CHAIN ENGINEERING APPROACH -- PRUNING APPROACH -- SUMMARY -- NOTES -- Chapter 7: Implementing a Forecasting Solution -- WHY DO FORECASTING IMPLEMENTATIONS FAIL? -- PREPROJECT ASSESSMENT -- REQUESTING INFORMATION OR PROPOSALS -- EVALUATING SOFTWARE VENDORS -- WARNING SIGNS OF FAILURE -- NOTES -- Chapter 8: Practical First Steps -- STEP 1: RECOGNIZE THE VOLATILITY VERSUS ACCURACY RELATIONSHIP -- STEP 2: DETERMINE INHERENT AND ARTIFICIAL VOLATILITY -- STEP 3: UNDERSTAND WHAT ACCURACY IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT -- STEP 4: USE FORECAST VALUE ADDED ANALYSIS TO ELIMINATE WASTED EFFORTS -- STEP 5: UTILIZE MEANINGFUL PERFORMANCE METRICS AND REPORTING -- STEP 6: ELIMINATE WORST PRACTICES -- STEP 7: CONSULT FORECASTING RESOURCES -- NOTES -- Chapter 9: What Management Must Know About Forecasting -- APHORISM 1: FORECASTING IS A HUGE WASTE OF MANAGEMENT TIME -- APHORISM 2: ACCURACY IS DETERMINED MORE BY THE NATURE OF THE BEHAVIOR BEING FORECAST THAN BY THE SPECIFIC METHOD BEING USED TO FORECAST IT -- APHORISM 3: ORGANIZATIONAL POLICIES AND POLITICS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECASTING EFFECTIVENESS -- APHORISM 4: YOU MAY NOT CONTROL THE ACCURACY ACHIEVED, BUT YOU CAN CONTROL THE PROCESS USED AND THE RESOURCES YOU INVEST -- APHORISM 5: THE SUREST WAY TO GET A BETTER FORECAST IS TO MAKE THE DEMAND FORECASTABLE -- APHORISM 6: MINIMIZE THE ORGANIZATION'S RELIANCE ON FORECASTING -- APHORISM 7: BEFORE INVESTING IN A NEW SYSTEM OR PROCESS, PUT IT TO THE TEST -- NOTES -- Epilogue -- Glossary -- Appendix: Forecasting FAQs -- ACCURACY EXPECTATIONS -- PERFORMANCE BENCHMARKS -- PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND REPORTING -- THE NAÏVE FORECAST -- FORECAST VALUE ADDED ANALYSIS -- FORECAST MODELING -- POLITICS AND PRACTICES OF FORECASTING -- DEMAND VOLATILITY -- FORECASTING PROCESS -- JUDGMENT -- FORECASTING ORGANIZATION -- LOW VOLUME/INTERMITTENT DEMAND.
505 8# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note	NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING -- FORECASTING HIERARCHY -- SOFTWARE SELECTION -- Index.
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc	Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.
588 ## - SOURCE OF DESCRIPTION NOTE
Source of description note	Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
590 ## - LOCAL NOTE (RLIN)
Local note	Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element	Business forecasting.
655 #4 - INDEX TERM--GENRE/FORM
Genre/form data or focus term	Electronic books.
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Platt, Julie.
776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY
Display text	Print version:
Main entry heading	Gilliland, Michael
Title	The Business Forecasting Deal : Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions
Place, publisher, and date of publication	New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,c2010
International Standard Book Number	9780470574430
797 2# - LOCAL ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME (RLIN)
Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element	ProQuest (Firm)
830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE
Uniform title	Wiley and SAS Business Ser.
856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Uniform Resource Identifier	<a href="https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/buse-ebooks/detail.action?docID=537339">https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/buse-ebooks/detail.action?docID=537339</a>
Public note	Click to View

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