Investment Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (Record no. 24691)
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| fixed length control field | 03155cam a22003974a 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER | |
| control field | 6193 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER | |
| control field | The World Bank |
| 006 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--ADDITIONAL MATERIAL CHARACTERISTICS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | m d |
| 007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | cr cn||||||||| |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 020129s2012 dcu i001 0 eng |
| 024 8# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER | |
| Standard number or code | 10.1596/1813-9450-6193 |
| 035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER | |
| System control number | (The World Bank)6193 |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Hallegatte, Stephane |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Investment Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty |
| Medium | [electronic resource] : |
| Remainder of title | Application to Climate Change / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc | Stephane Hallegatte |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT) | |
| Place of publication, distribution, etc | Washington, D.C., |
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc | The World Bank, |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc | 2012 |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | 1 online resource (41 p.) |
| 520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc | While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties cannot be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), it then summarizes existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis. It also provides examples of applications of these methodologies, highlighting their pros and cons and their domain of applicability. The paper concludes that it is impossible to define the "best" solution or to prescribe any particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu of methodologies is required, together with some indications on which strategies are most appropriate in which contexts. This analysis is based on a set of interviews with decision-makers, in particular World Bank project leaders, and on a literature review on decision-making under uncertainty. It aims at helping decision-makers identify which method is more appropriate in a given context, as a function of the project's lifetime, cost, and vulnerability. |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Adaptation |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Climate change |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Climate Change Economics |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Decision-making under uncertainty |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Global Environment Facility |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Investment |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Science of Climate Change |
| 650 #4 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Brown, Casey |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Gill, Stuart |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Hallegatte, Stephane |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Lempert, Robert |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Shah, Ankur |
| 776 18 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Main entry heading | Print version: |
| Display text | Hallegatte, Stephane |
| Title | Investment Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. |
| Place, publisher, and date of publication | Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2012 |
| 830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE | |
| Uniform title | Policy research working papers. |
| 830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE | |
| Uniform title | World Bank e-Library. |
| 856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-6193">http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-6193</a> |
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