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Understanding Uncertainty. (Record no. 115929)

000 -LEADER
fixed length control field	07452nam a22005173i 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field	EBC1574353
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field	MiAaPQ
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field	20181121171634.0
006 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--ADDITIONAL MATERIAL CHARACTERISTICS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field	m o d \|
007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field	cr cnu\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field	181113s2013 xx o \|\|\|\|0 eng d
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number	9781118650233
--	(electronic bk.)
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
Cancelled/invalid ISBN	9781118650158
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(MiAaPQ)EBC1574353
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(Au-PeEL)EBL1574353
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(CaPaEBR)ebr10814685
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(CaONFJC)MIL552088
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	(OCoLC)844245514
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Original cataloging agency	MiAaPQ
Language of cataloging	eng
Description conventions	rda
--	pn
Transcribing agency	MiAaPQ
Modifying agency	MiAaPQ
050 #4 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER
Classification number	QA273.L534 2013eb
082 0# - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number	519.2
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Lindley, Dennis V.
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title	Understanding Uncertainty.
250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT
Edition statement	2nd ed.
264 #1 - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Place of publication, distribution, etc	New York :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc	John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,
Date of publication, distribution, etc	2013.
264 #4 - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Date of publication, distribution, etc	©2014.
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent	1 online resource (299 pages)
336 ## - CONTENT TYPE
Content type term	text
Content type code	txt
Source	rdacontent
337 ## - MEDIA TYPE
Media type term	computer
Media type code	c
Source	rdamedia
338 ## - CARRIER TYPE
Carrier type term	online resource
Carrier type code	cr
Source	rdacarrier
490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT
Series statement	Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics Ser.
505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note	Understanding Uncertainty -- Contents -- Preface -- Prologue -- Chapter 1: Uncertainty -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. Examples -- 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty -- 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty -- 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty -- 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty -- 1.7. Beliefs -- 1.8. Decision Analysis -- Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions -- 2.1. Reason -- 2.2. Unreason -- 2.3. Facts -- 2.4. Emotion -- 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches -- 2.6. Simplicity -- 2.7. Mathematics -- 2.8. Writing -- 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial -- Chapter 3: Probability -- 3.1. Measurement -- 3.2. Randomness -- 3.3. A Standard for Probability -- 3.4. Probability -- 3.5. Coherence -- 3.6. Belief -- 3.7. Complementary Event -- 3.8. Odds -- 3.9. Knowledge Base -- 3.10. Examples -- 3.11. Retrospect -- Chapter 4: Two Events -- 4.1. Two Events -- 4.2. Conditional Probability -- 4.3. Independence -- 4.4. Association -- 4.5. Examples -- 4.6. Supposition and Fact -- 4.7. Seeing and Doing -- Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability -- 5.1. Combinations of Events -- 5.2. Addition Rule -- 5.3. Multiplication Rule -- 5.4. The Basic Rules -- 5.5. Examples -- 5.6. Extension of the Conversation -- 5.7. Dutch Books -- 5.8. Scoring Rules -- 5.9. Logic Again -- 5.10. Decision Analysis -- 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma -- 5.12. The Calculus and Reality -- 5.13. Closure -- Chapter 6: Bayes Rule -- 6.1. Transposed Conditionals -- 6.2. Learning -- 6.3. Bayes Rule -- 6.4. Medical Diagnosis -- 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule -- 6.6. Forensic Evidence -- 6.7. Likelihood Ratio -- 6.8. Cromwell's Rule -- 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns -- 6.10. Ravens -- 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters -- 6.12. Information -- Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty -- 7.1. Classical Form -- 7.2. Frequency Data -- 7.3. Exchangeability -- 7.4. Bernoulli Series -- 7.5. De Finetti's Result -- 7.6. Large Numbers.
505 8# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note	7.7. Belief and Frequency -- 7.8. Chance -- Chapter 8: Three Events -- 8.1. The Rules of Probability -- 8.2. Simpson's Paradox -- 8.3. Source of the Paradox -- 8.4. Experimentation -- 8.5. Randomization -- 8.6. Exchangeability -- 8.7. Spurious Association -- 8.8. Independence -- 8.9. Conclusions -- Chapter 9: Variation -- 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty -- 9.2. Binomial Distribution -- 9.3. Expectation -- 9.4. Poisson Distribution -- 9.5. Spread -- 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool -- 9.7. Probability and Chance -- 9.8. Pictorial Representation -- 9.9. Probability Densities -- 9.10. The Normal Distribution -- 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon -- 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox -- Chapter 10: Decision Analysis -- 10.1. Beliefs and Actions -- 10.2. Comparison of Consequences -- 10.3. Medical Example -- 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility -- 10.5. More on Utility -- 10.6. Some Complications -- 10.7. Reason and Emotion -- 10.8. Numeracy -- 10.9. Expected Utility -- 10.10. Decision Trees -- 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis -- 10.12. Further Complications -- 10.13. Combination of Features -- 10.14. Legal Applications -- Chapter 11: Science -- 11.1. Scientific Method -- 11.2. Science and Education -- 11.3. Data Uncertainty -- 11.4. Theories -- 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory -- 11.6. The Bayesian Development -- 11.7. Modification of Theories -- 11.8. Models -- 11.9. Hypothesis Testing -- 11.10. Significance Tests -- 11.11. Repetition -- 11.12. Summary -- Chapter 12: Examples -- 12.1. Introduction -- 12.2. Cards -- 12.3. The Three Doors -- 12.4. The Problem of Two Daughters -- 12.5. Two More Daughters and Cardano -- 12.6. The Two Envelopes -- 12.7. Y2K -- 12.8. UFOs -- 12.9. Conglomerability -- 12.10. Efron's Dice -- Chapter 13: Probability Assessment -- 13.1. Nonrepeatable Events -- 13.2. Two Events -- 13.3. Coherence.
505 8# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note	13.4. Probabilistic Reasoning -- 13.5. Trickle Down -- 13.6. Summary -- Chapter 14: Statistics -- 14.1. Bayesian Statistics -- 14.2. A Bayesian Example -- 14.3. Frequency Statistics -- 14.4. Significance Tests -- 14.5. Betting -- 14.6. Finance -- Epilogue -- Subject Index -- Index of Examples -- Index of Notations.
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc	Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." -Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book's thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.
588 ## - SOURCE OF DESCRIPTION NOTE
Source of description note	Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
590 ## - LOCAL NOTE (RLIN)
Local note	Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2018. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element	Decision making -- Mathematics.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element	Mathematical statistics.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element	Probabilities.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element	Uncertainty -- Mathematics.
655 #4 - INDEX TERM--GENRE/FORM
Genre/form data or focus term	Electronic books.
776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY
Display text	Print version:
Main entry heading	Lindley, Dennis V.
Title	Understanding Uncertainty
Place, publisher, and date of publication	New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,c2013
International Standard Book Number	9781118650158
797 2# - LOCAL ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME (RLIN)
Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element	ProQuest (Firm)
830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE
Uniform title	Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics Ser.
856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Uniform Resource Identifier	<a href="https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/buse-ebooks/detail.action?docID=1574353">https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/buse-ebooks/detail.action?docID=1574353</a>
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