Ianchovichina, Elena
Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant Russia / Ianchovichina, Elena [electronic resource] : Ianchovichina, Elena - Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2009 - 1 online resource (32 p.) - Policy research working papers. World Bank e-Library. .
Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.
10.1596/1813-9450-5075
Adverse impacts
Agricultural output
Competitiveness
Constant returns to scale
Consumers
Debt
Economic cooperation
Economic performance
Economic Theory and Research
Emerging Markets
Export growth
Exports
Financial crisis
Free Trade
GDP
Income
Income levels
International Economics & Trade
International trade
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
Markets and Market Access
Natural resources
Newly industrialized countries
Private Sector Development
Product differentiation
Productivity growth
Public Sector Development
Taxation
Trade Policy
Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant Russia / Ianchovichina, Elena [electronic resource] : Ianchovichina, Elena - Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2009 - 1 online resource (32 p.) - Policy research working papers. World Bank e-Library. .
Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.
10.1596/1813-9450-5075
Adverse impacts
Agricultural output
Competitiveness
Constant returns to scale
Consumers
Debt
Economic cooperation
Economic performance
Economic Theory and Research
Emerging Markets
Export growth
Exports
Financial crisis
Free Trade
GDP
Income
Income levels
International Economics & Trade
International trade
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
Markets and Market Access
Natural resources
Newly industrialized countries
Private Sector Development
Product differentiation
Productivity growth
Public Sector Development
Taxation
Trade Policy