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Matheson, Troy D.

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle Troy Matheson. [electronic resource] / Troy Matheson. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. - 1 online resource (12 p.) - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 13/124 . - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 13/124 .

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.

ISBN: 1484334728 : 18.00 USD

ISSN: 1018-5941

Standard No.: 10.5089/9781484334720.001 doi

Subjects--Topical Terms:
Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Forecasting and Simulation
Inflation Dynamics
Monetary Fund
Phillips Curve
Price Inflation

Subjects--Geographic Terms:
United States