Anand, Rahul.
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia Rahul Anand. [electronic resource] / Rahul Anand. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014. - 1 online resource (26 p.) - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 14/2 . - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 14/2 .
Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993-2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
148434572X : 18.00 USD
1018-5941
10.5089/9781484345726.001 doi
Emerging Asia
Growth Accounting
Growth Rate
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Potential Growth
TFP
China, People's Republic of
India
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia Rahul Anand. [electronic resource] / Rahul Anand. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014. - 1 online resource (26 p.) - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 14/2 . - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 14/2 .
Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993-2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
148434572X : 18.00 USD
1018-5941
10.5089/9781484345726.001 doi
Emerging Asia
Growth Accounting
Growth Rate
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Potential Growth
TFP
China, People's Republic of
India