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Ho, Giang.

A Financial Conditions Index for Poland Giang Ho. [electronic resource] / Giang Ho. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. - 1 online resource (16 p.) - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 13/252 . - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 13/252 .

This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches-factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index's forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland's economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.

ISBN: 1475540647 : 18.00 USD

ISSN: 1018-5941

Standard No.: 10.5089/9781475540642.001 doi

Subjects--Topical Terms:
Bond Yield
Bond
Factor Analysis
Financial Conditions Index
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Forecasting and Simulation

Subjects--Geographic Terms:
Poland