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Thornton, John.

World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices Evidence From the United Kingdom / John Thornton. [electronic resource] : John Thornton. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 1997. - 1 online resource (15 p.) - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 97/70 . - IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 97/70 .

This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices, and whether short-run changes in commodity prices convey information about future movements in U.K. retail prices. The results show noncointegration and no unidirectional Granger causality from commodity to retail prices. These findings suggest that little may be gained from using developments in commodity prices to forecast movements in retail prices in the inflation-targeting framework followed by the U.K. monetary authorities.

ISBN: 1451960476 : 15.00 USD

ISSN: 1018-5941

Standard No.: 10.5089/9781451960471.001 doi

Subjects--Topical Terms:
Aggregate Demand
Commodity Prices
Inflation Targeting
Inflation
Monetary Authorities

Subjects--Geographic Terms:
United Kingdom